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Just published by the Washington Independent: an in-depth look at what Maliki’s embrace of Obama’s withdrawal plan means for the Bush administration, the military, and J McC.
As a result, the positions on Iraq of the Bush administration, the U.S. military and Sen. John McCain, the presumed GOP presidential nominee, now face numerous challenges. The administration’s plans for a permanent U.S. presence in Iraq have been profoundly undermined. The military will have to adjust to a strategy of extrication. The McCain campaign is presented with one of its nightmare scenarios: the Iraqi premier embracing the judgment of its opponent, Sen. Barack Obama, which strengthens Obama’s bona fides on a national-security issue McCain has largely staked his presidential bid on owning.
"McCain keeps stressing the need to craft strategy with input from those with on-the-ground information," said Charles Kupchan, an international-relations professor at Georgetown University. "The prime minister of Iraq certainly qualifies."
"I’ve said all along that Cheney and Bush made a fundamental decision almost two years ago, when they hadn’t a clue what to do on Iraq, to pass it on to the next administration," added Larry Wilkerson, chief of staff to Secretary of State Colin L. Powell during Bush’s first term, said in a Monday phone call, "and hide behind the skirts of David Petraeus. That has not changed." It might be the only thing.
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Good article. Do you think that Al-Maliki, because caught somewhat in the middle of what his constituents wanted and what the Bush administration wanted, felt some sense of, well, relief in making his initial statement? It seems to me that he extricated part of himself (or wholly?) from under the thumb of Bush, pleased his people, and inserted prominently himself and his country’s requirements in US politics.
I say “relief” to be prudent. Were I him, I’d be somewhat cackling up my sleeve. Or have I watched too much BSG geekliy finding it applied to all things RL?
Obama’s promise of removing “combat” troops from Iraq within 16 months sounds good but there is not much talk about the 50k troops who will be stuck there to guard the mega-bases, train the Iraqi Army, and hunt remnants of AQI. If Obama wishes to keep 50k US troops in Iraq throughout his term, will the Left turn on him? Are these troops being used as a trip-wire, to keep Iran’s influence in check? Would Barney Frank, Rahm Emmanuel, Howard Berman turn on Obama if he decided to withdraw all troops from Iraq and remove the US buffer between Iran and Israel?
When Maliki talks about American troops out of Iraq by 2010, does he mean “combat” troops or ALL American troops?
I think it’s more that he realized, after nearly a year of Bush pressuring him to sign over the country via two permanent-occupation agreements, he saw there was no upside for him — Bush is on his way out; Obama is probably on his way in; and in Iraq this is a huge deal and everyone hates it. The life you save may be your own, as they say.
Pretty clear he means all combat troops. Unclear when/if he’d consider adding force-protection troops into that mix, or what the Maliki government thinks of a residual presence.
You’d look to motive and conclude visibile troops. Armour, humvees, patrols, mega-bases. Nobody gives a toss about those working behind the scenes.
The troop training and CT functions mentioned can be done with minimal visibility. It really is baffling the “Obama wants to stay!” comments I see talking about CT forces continuing operations there as though this means 30000 grunts. This and training local forces is the domain of special forces. The guys who’ve been operating everywhere including Pakistan without much grief.
There’s no such thing as a president who’s going to give up the ability to kill aQ in an area where they’re operating and where you’ve got the ability to stage operations. That’s a given that SF ops continue.
With the numbers, remember that when they talk about 30000 personnel this includes all the non-combat support staff. These personnel — or more to the point their expertise, tech, etc — is what Iraq REALLY doesn’t have and will find lacking when they just replace M4s with AKs.
BTW this “J McC” business just looks clumsy.
Surely someone is out there trying to get the handle “J-Mac” to stick to try and market him to the kids.