AFP reported (thanks to reader TW) a few days ago that some of the Sunni ex-insurgents who comprise the Anbar Awakening are raising the price of their alliance of convenience with U.S. forces:
The Iraqi officer leading a U.S.-financed anti-jihadist group is in no mood for small talk — either the military gives him more money or he will pack his bags and rejoin the ranks of al-Qaeda.
"I’ll go back to al-Qaeda if you stop backing the Sahwa (Awakening) groups," Col. Satar tells U.S. Lt. Matthew McKernon, as he tries to secure more funding for his men to help battle the anti-U.S. insurgents.
Now, it’s hard to argue that paying a dude who could be shooting you $300 not to shoot you is an ideal solution, but it’s also hard to argue that it’s worse than being shot at — even when conceding some of the long-term problems with the program. But for a really excellent soldiers-eye-view of the Awakening, check out Army of Dude, who coins the brilliant phrase "Enemies with Benefits" to describe it.
Unfortunately, we couldn’t take out the trash that easily. We grudingly worked with the 1920s as per our orders. We were moderately successful in tracking down al-Qaeda operatives (or possibly doing in-house cleaning) and caches. But the point isn’t the success of turning over a new leaf with insurgents, though. We traded in our values, our self reliance to get things done, for $300 a head. We did not destroy our enemy but rather aided them. We secured not only their future success, but the future instability with the Iraqi government. Maliki and his Shia government adamantly oppose the Sunni groups and have said in the past that they will never become a permanent part of Iraqi forces.
But they don’t pay the former insurgents, we do, as taxpayers. That’s why they’re trying to leverage the American military into giving them more money, the ol’ "pay me more or I’m going back to killing you" ruse. And for their part, they’ll probably be successful. Commanders know that they’re important not for killing al-Qaeda, but for not fighting us. They’re not allies, they’re enemies with benefits. And they’re holding the cards.
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I’ve long felt that was the initial approach to the invasion of Iraq that created the collapse of central power so quickly, with billions funnelled to Iraq military brass…. some of which has since been spent to fund the resistance killing US troops.
Such payoffs could be viewed as cost-effective alternatives to combat, if it weren’t for that damned blowback. The GOP has become expert at managing brushfires that destroy the whole forest, while lauding their capabilities to save one tree.
I knew this scene was familiar! Apparently the Iraqis watch reruns of Monty Python just like the rest of us. It’s the Army Protection Racket sketch.
…
Knock at the door, sergeant enters, and salutes.
Sergeant: Two civilian gentlemen to see you … sir!
Colonel: Show them in please, sergeant.
Sergeant: Mr Dino Vercotti and Mr Luigi Vercotti.
The Vercotti brothers enter. They wear Mafia suits and dark glasses.
Dino: Good morning, colonel.
Colonel: Good morning gentlemen. Now what can I do for you.
Luigi: (looking round office casually)You’ve … you’ve got a nice army base here, colonel.
Colonel: Yes.
Luigi: We wouldn’t want anything to happen to it.
…
Colonel: Look, what is all this about?
Dino: My brother and I have got a little proposition for you colonel.
Luigi: Could save you a lot of bother.
Dino: I mean you’re doing all right here aren’t you, colonel.
Luigi: Well suppose some of your tanks was to get broken and troops started getting lost, er, fights started breaking out during general inspection, like.
Dino: It wouldn’t be good for business would it, colonel?
Colonel: Are you threatening me?
Dino: Oh, no, no, no.
Luigi: Whatever made you think that, colonel?
Dino: The colonel doesn’t think we’re nice people, Luigi.
Luigi: We’re your buddies, colonel.
Dino: We want to look after you.
Colonel: Look after me?
Luigi: We can guarantee you that not a single armoured division will get done over for fifteen bob a week.
…
“Enemies with Benefits” is pretty good.
You’ve gotta keep in mind, these ain’t bribes, they’re wages. Either dissolving all the security forces was a great idea or you would have been paying a lot of these wages from day 1. Fact is you didn’t so someone else picked up the paycheck and the going rate for planting an IED was a employment opportunity for a couple of years there.
It ain’t a great solution, but then again it isn’t one. It’s the foot in the door to a fundamental COIN objective.