DENVER, Colo. — I’ve been lax in following through on my promise to present a cogent argument against a troop increase in Afghanistan, but I have to say I don’t find this China Hand post on Afghanistan/Pakistan very persuasive. CH’s argument is that a troop buildup is potentially destabilizing to Pakistan. Judge for yourself the strength of his (her?) argument.

… a surge into Afghanistan, instead of adding an emollient sheen to waters already smoothed by an interested regional power, might instead apply a highly flammable coating of gasoline to all of South Asia—with the Taliban and the ISI both eager to throw a match.

And, you know, it might. It’s also worth considering that, as China Hand points out, that there’s a constellation of malign forces who will naturally exploit any potentially provocative act. See, for instance, the propaganda value of U.S.-caused civilian casualties in Afghanistan. But the more likely answer to instability in Pakistan caused by a U.S. provocation in Afghanistan is for the military to reassert its dominance, not to sit back and watch Pakistan fall into the abyss. Obviously, that’s a bad outcome that we should seek to avoid, but the worst-case-outcome here — and I say this with trepidation — doesn’t seem to be the likeliest outcome. I say this expecting to be in Afghanistan late next week.