Anyone who has ever read my writing (I'm talking to both of you) knows I am nothing if not blunt. So, I'm just going to throw this out there: I hate the L.A. Times. Every article I ever see from that paper has the most ridiculous right bend. Because of that, I was surprised to be nodding along throughout this article:
WASHINGTON -- A top commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan said Friday that he needed thousands of additional troops to combat violence along the border with Pakistan, a requirement that appears to be at odds with recommendations from Army Gen. David H. Petraeus on future troop levels in Iraq.
...
Army Gen. Jeffrey J. Schloesser, who took command of American-controlled eastern Afghanistan in April, said that coalition forces were at no risk of losing in Afghanistan without additional brigades. But he said that continuing with the current level of about 34,000 U.S. troops for an extended period would result in a "slow win."
Saying that we need more troops in Afghanistan, but we cannot do this without redeploying a significant amount of troops from Iraq isn't news to anyone who reads/writes national security blogs. We've been discussing this for months if not years. Recently, it's become an increasing part of the public debate. This is mostly due to Afghanistan being more dangerous for U.S. troops than Iraq was at the most violent part of the war. As Brandon Friedman tells us, this isn't mere hyperbole. It's a statistical fact:
When the Iraq War reached its deadliest peak during a 10-week period in April, May, and June of 2007, 308 coalition troops died. That was 1 out of every 575 troops on the ground at the time.* It was a terrible period in which even the most die-hard Bush supporters began to question the sense in continuing the occupation. By contrast, 105 coalition troops have died in Afghanistan during the past 10 weeks. But because there are only 52,700 troops in Afghanistan, this represents 1 out of every 502 troops on the ground.
More striking to me, however is General Schlosser's comment that the lack of additional troops for Afghanistan would result in a "slow win".
This is completely in contradiction to the Powell doctrine (advice that Powell should have invoked in the administration while planning the Iraq war) which calls for overwhelming force disproportionate to that of the enemy. A "slow win" in Afghanistan means we spend a long time fighting the Taliban and al Qaeda. While that may result in the defeat of the both networks, we spend billions of U.S. dollars in the process and, more importantly, lose thousands of American lives.
The Powell doctrine is sound here. Overpowering force to prevent the loss of U.S. Soldiers. And General Schlosser knows it:
"It's not the way that I think the Afghans, the international community and the American people would like to see us conduct this war," Schloesser said in a video conference with reporters at the Pentagon. "It will take longer, the way we are doing it right now. . . . I'd like to speed that up."
Also interesting to me was this comment from General Schlosser:
U.S. commanders in eastern Afghanistan have "very low numbers of troops," Schloesser said. They are able to attack enemy positions, but not hold captured territory and begin the rebuilding necessary to win in a counterinsurgency effort.
This caught me eye because It's almost the same thing I told George Packer in an interview that will be published in Monday's New Yorker:
“When I got over there, it was almost more of an atrocity that we were still in Afghanistan than that we were in Iraq,” he said. “I’d like to personalize that for you.”
Eyes alight, Smith leaned forward and described how his battalion lost a paratrooper in the district of Sangin; he helped carry the flag-draped coffin onto a C-17. But, soon after his unit left Afghanistan, in April, “the Taliban were back in Sangin, because we didn’t have the troops to hold that city.”
I was a run-of-the-mill Sergeant when I was in Afghanistan last year, and I was afraid that some military leaders, especially those I served under, would challenge that quote. Instead, it appears that the highest ranking American military commander in Afghanistan the Eastern Regional Command confirmed it.
Cross-posted at VetVoice.
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If anyone can name the song that line is from, you should go with me to Birmingham on the 30th.
Wouldn’t that be McKeirnan, not Schlosser ?
Might be you found the soft underbelly of the LAT beast — have you browsed the collective body of work by LAT reporters Siegel and Barnes? these guys might be strong enough to keep editors at bay.
Good call. that was a dumb and embarrassing mistake.
I think I’d take the “slow win” part with a hefty helping of salt. NATO is losing in Afghanistan. And without both more troops and a change in strategy, there’s no reason to believe it won’t continue to lose.
I left in April, and then we weren’t losing (btw, i think we’d both agree that talking about Afghanistan as if it were a baseball game is pretty ridiculous) the fight then. It was more of a stalemate. We could clear the Taliban out of a district, but as soon as we left they would be back. The latest news reports, however, seem like the situation is worse. I don’t know if the Taliban has gained ground, but their attacks have become more large scale, more coordinated and more effective. Spencer can probably tell us more about that when he gets back.
Several interesting points in this, one is that he sets the number of active insurgents between 7 and 11 000, wich sounds wildly inaccurate to me if you add logistics and basing operatives into the game. Another point is the liberal use of the word “win”, as far as I can see there has been offered no percieved endstate for the afghan adventure, so there is really no definition on the term “win”. Third, it seems to me that the US continues to fail to adress the very basic premise of COIN, legitimacy. What does it help to kill mujahedin when much of the countryside, even close to Kabul, have reverted to the Taleban for judicial and other decisions? When the people we are defending, the warlords, are the very people that the Taleban rioted against in the original place, its a fair bet to think that they are not popular this time around either.
There is so much that is wrong with the whole western approach to Afghanistan, and has been wrong since the very beginning. As in Iraq (where the “peace” is very very fragile) we are still seeing the aftermaths of Rumsfelds folly, the twofront war. Why arent any democrats hitting back at the surge triumphalists with the original plans for the Iraqi adventure, 1 year & 500 billion tops? Argh.