The Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) signed by the U.S. and Iraqi governments demands the departure of U.S. combat troops from Iraqi towns and cities by July 2009 and the full departure of U.S. forces — not just combat forces, all U.S. forces — by Dec. 2011. This is an enormous, massive, situation-altering strategic fact. And it appears not to have fully sunk in to many in the U.S. military.
In during the conference call this morning with Maj. Gen. Mike Milano, head of the U.S.’s training efforts for Iraqi police, Bill Roggio of the Long War Journal asked what the SOFA would mean for him. "I really can’t say definitively," he replied. "It really depends on progress made by the Ministry of Interior, police forces, [and there are] a lot of variables associated with that." That’s a sensible answer — if there weren’t an agreement saying that he had three years to wrap his efforts up. What he didn’t say on the call was something on the order of, "We have to consider a lot of things in the context of this agreement, and here’s where my thinking is at…"
And I wonder if that isn’t coming down from the top. Gen. Ray Odierno, commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, tends to talk more about how he can get around the SOFA than how he’s going to follow it. In today’s New York Times, Odierno is described as being almost dismissive of the idea that the SOFA is really going to get U.S. forces out:
General Odierno also said that he was planning for all American forces to be out of Iraq by 2011, as called for in the agreement with the Iraqi government, but he said the agreement could be renegotiated. “Three years is a long time,” General Odierno said.
It’s one thing for Odierno to want to safeguard his operational flexibility. That’s his prerogative as a commander, and it’s something to be respected. But the SOFA is a strategic agreement between the U.S. and Iraq. Undermining it is something that will occur at the Iraqi government’s peril. From a counterinsurgency perspective, wanting to stay in Iraq more than the Iraqis want the U.S. in Iraq is sheer astrategic madness. It’s up to Obama to make his intentions clear here.
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Isn’t the SOFA agreement supposed to be ratified by a vote of the Iraqi people?
It’s called “insubordination”, General. Keep it up, and you’ll feel what that means.
Odierno is an idiot. He is not the general we need in Iraq to oversee a withdrawal.
General Odierno needs to read his Constitution and his oath again. HE is NOT in charge of policy, nor in charge of when, or whether we leave Iraq. As of January 20, 3009, that authority belongs fully and completely to the C-in-C – President Barack Obama and no one else. Odierno may need a little reminding of just who is actually in charge here.
And yes – the Iraqis do have a referendum on the SOFA. And if they vote it down, then we will have twelve months from that day to remove ALL our forces. As they say, plan for the worst, expect the best. That means he better get busy on Obama’s 16-month timetable since that one year deadline coincides almost exactly with Obama’s proposed pullout date.
Ooops! January 20, 2009 !! (Preview is my friend….)
Next June. Odierno’s plan is to stay until there’s a compliant puppet govt in Baghdad. An armed political struggle within the country will give Odierno a chance to use US forces to support those of the govt against whatever forces the opposition (al-Sadr?) can field. Only when US oil interests control access to Iraki oil will the US be satisfied.
Digg it
Ahhh, but Spencer, you fail to understand Odierno’s “I was there” double-secret understanding.
Since Commander Bunnypants has determined that the SOFA is not a “treaty” requiring Congressional approval, Odierno has rightly concluded that the SOFA is just a mash note between Commander Bunnypants and the object of his affection, the ever coquettish Maliki.
Spencer, have you read Badger’s posts on the neo-Ba’athist’s coup? He even out-scooped the NYT on the coup! Roads to Iraq has an interesting update too…
Pass the popcorn…!
OT – only in Texas
Btw, Spencer, I thought you were great on Rachel yesterday!
Great post, thank you.
What I meant to say was great post Spencer, thank you.
CTuttle, thanks, I’ll wander over to Maddow’s MSNBC page and see if there’s video of Spencer.
All troops should be out by July 1. Nothing else is acceptable.
ABC News just found out there is a kerfuffle over Warren speaking at his Inauguration. Who knew? Why is fdl not discussing this? *g*
Have already read Overthrow, but library had an audio copy, and since it’s such a good book (13 or 14 times the U.S. unilaterally overthrew a foreign govt since starting with Hawaii in 1893.
Not paying attention to legal documents that the U.S. govt signs is very much a part of that long-standing tradition.
SOP
Don’t forget the sovereign governments of the Cherokee Nation, The Confederated Iroquis Tribes, The Onandaga Tribe, The Sioux Nation, The Navajo Nation, …I could go on for about an hour here.
Charter given to Christopher Columbus by Queen Isabella of Spain:
…if there be inhabitants of any lands encountered, they shall NOT be claimed on behalf of the Queen…
Yup. North America was completely uninhabited by those 20 million ‘red’ men.
Hmmmpf.
Yes, the book starts after the U.S. govt conquered the whole continent. Gotta carve off a meaningful piece for only one book.
Obama has said that he wants the troops out. The agreement has been signed. What more clarity is required?
Do you want Odierno to say that all forces will leave by an exact time?
I would think that is something that he CAN’T say. If he did, that would be insubordination. His job is to leave when he gets ordered to leave.
It seems that there is just a little bit of uncertainty as to what might happen in Iraq in the next couple of years and that can’t be ignored either.
I think Obama, in his well-photographed ride in a helicopter in Iraq with General Petraus, made it clear to him that if elected, HE, Obama, would be making the decisions, with input from all the Generals and other sources from Iraq.
Just wonder why Odierno seems to be putting out policy instead of just focusing on his command there. Obama will be making the policy in a few short weeks, and Odierno better jump to and obey his orders…
Or Obama should relieve him and put in someone he trusts to carry out his directives to get OUT OF IRAQ!
OT-Rep. Hilda Solis nominated for Labor Sec…!
What we DON’T want is Odierno already talking about work-arounds to the SOFA and opining that the agreement will ‘probably’ be re-negotiated. As a matter of fact, he should be keeping his mouth shut. It is not his place to be saying anything other than what he is directed to say by the CIC.
General Petraus committed similar offenses at the behest of Busco. Military officers – no matter how many stars on their shoulders – are NOT PERMITTED TO SET OR DEFINE POLICY. That is for the civilian government. Period.
The Iraqis want us gone. If the place blows up after we leave – well, then that is their problem, isn’t it?
I remember Nixon saying he was going to pull us out of Nam as part of his campaign in 68. In Sep of 70 I was still tryin’ to keep Charlie from ending my career.
I’m sure you’re aware of how we ousted a popular, democratically elected PM in Iran, giving the Shah total control. I wonder how that is working out for us?
Unfortunately for you (and everyone else in that predicament) the puppet government in SVN did not want us to leave since we were responsible for keeping them not only in power but actually alive. They didn’t want us to leave when we actually did leave. And then they were gone.
Not much different – except in this case our puppet has decided to stand on his own hind legs and tell us to get the h**l out of his country.
I get your point though – after all, a SOFA is just a d**n piece of paper anyway….
Yep that’s one of the chapters.
True, true. It would fill up several volumes to enumerate the entire mess I guess.
I’m still waiting for us to honor just one provision of just one of those treaties we signed with the First Nations. Just one.
If I was Iraq, I wouldn’t be holding my breath waiting for the US to leave.
I’m working on the notion that there’s something inherently evil that gets into genes of a settler nation: U.S., Israel, So. Africa.
But then there are plenty of evil nations that aren’t settler in orgin, so probably not.
Well, I was actually crazy and volunteered to stay all that time. It’s what I got for believing politicians. Young, dumb and full of…
We agree that generals should not be setting policy. I know of nothing suggesting that they do.
I think we also agree that they shouldn’t be publicly discussing policy. Too many microphones, too many cameras.
The majority of Iraqis currently say that they want our troops gone and I would bet that the Iraqis don’t want that anywhere near as much as we do. Most likely the place is gonna blow before we get out.
And time will reveal he won’t be, I think.
I got to stop agreeing with you, it’s killin my street cred. *G*
Not gonna happen, Iraq is gonna go up in flames in civil war no matter WHAT we di, we let the genie out of THAT bottle long ago by invading.
And when it does, the USA will stand by powerless unless we want to engage Iran, Syria, their many forces (Hizbollah, Quds) and of course, the Sunni, Kurds and disparate Shia in Iraq. Who will SLAUGHTER us on the ground as they all unite against us once again, only THIS time with grim resolve.
And this leaves out what China and Russia intend to do if we continue to screw this up any more than we have.
It’s over. Period. Even the 1% and the Boosh Oil Syndicate and The Saudi’s can’t win this one, or save it.
I got a dollar says civil war within 3 years even if we DO pull out. Civil war sooner if Obama don’t set a tone and dismantle the bases and give up Green Zone.
JMHO. *G*
Malike is sweating bullets, and SHOULD be. There’s more where those B’aathist’s came from! LOTS MORE!!!! And he’ll be toast sooner than later, with or without our support or presence. I give him less than a year. I give outright Civil War 3 years or less. You?
Good call, CT. Know you LOVE yer ME/Iraqi sitches. *G*
There’s a few names from San Mateo, CA on that wall in D.C. that came from ‘69, ‘70, and one from my grad class of ‘71 who went down in ‘72.
I was against that action, and against most of them since.
But I’m not talking right or wrong for now.
Welcome home, hoss. Good to have ya here.
Thread’s dead, but in closing it, Thanks Mr. Ackerman for a great, great showing on Rachel yesterday.
First we take Cable, then we take MSM (apologies to Lenny Cohen). *G*
Not a typing error..for a few seconds you were thinking of how long McCain thought the US should stay.