Writing at Commentary’s blog, Abe Greenwald looks at the more problematic aspects of Israel’s escalation in Gaza. He thinks the difficulties are surmountable, though, so he’s safely out of juice box territory, but his analysis is in considerable tension with his conclusion. For instance, Greenwald recognizes every day the Israelis remain in Gaza, the greater the need for "the end result of the operation be both dramatic and easily defined." But what would such an end result require?
Israeli leadership needs Hamas to say, even disingenuously, “We give up.” Either that or the IDF needs to degrade Hamas leadership to the point of recognizable impotence.
The fact that these are the conditions of success on the part of the invasion’s supporters should indicate a great deal about the wisdom of the operation. No one in Hamas will ever in any circumstance say that they "give up" while the Israelis are attacking, and certainly not disingenuously. Degrading Hamas’ leadership to the point of "recognizable impotence" is the more interesting criterion, and the one with the most plausibility, but Israel still won’t escape the problem of subjectivity. You can decapitate the entire leadership — Israel has proven again and again that it’s able to do that, as the corpses of Sheikh Yassin and Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi attest — but the organization will nevertheless find people to replace them. So will the Israelis have achieved their goals or not? In other words, who is the relevant population cohort to judge whether Hamas’ leadership is "recognizably" decimated?
The goals of this operation are more elusive the more you apply scrutiny to them. That’s the biggest indication of a blunder, and the response to a blunder is mitigation. If the Israelis decide tomorrow that they’ve met their goals — Gaza is pummelled, after all — and they’ll pull back and accept an internationally-brokered-and-enforced ceasefire, that’s better for all parties than continued warfare.
Login Here




4 Comments
Spotlight


Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About ATTACKERMAN
Advanced search
RSS/XML Feed
A simple question. How do the Israeli troops decide who is Hamas and who isn’t? They don’t wear uniforms and they have lived their all their lives. So if they start to blend in, other than recognizable Hamas leadership how do they weed out the rank and file. If the answer is what I think it is “they can’t” then the whole premise of the exercise is fatally flawed.
They’re identifying Hamas targets — installations rather than people — like the university and certain mosques and government buildings run by Hamas and using that as a proxy. Your broader point, I think, stands though. There’s a necessary imprecision here that speaks to the myopia of the enterprise.
If thats all they do there is now way they can claim they “crushed” Hamas. All they will have done is crushed their infrastructure. Hamas lives through the people, not in my opinion their weapons. After they leave whomever is left will just find other ways to get access to weapons. Nothing gained.
Of course what I really think will happen is the exact opposite. They will error on the side of over reaction and kill a lot of Palestinians who are not Hamas militants “just to be sure”. And thats what I think my biggest problem is. There has been a tendency to say Hamas over and over in the media to the point where a lot of average everyday people have the impression that all of the residents of the Gaza strip are Hamas militants. Not a lot of people, yourself excluded, are even bothering to point out that not long ago the more moderate (at least perception wise) Fatah ruled Gaza and there are still many of them there.
Like everybody else, I’m trying my best to understand Israeli strategy, and hope that their vagueness about it is strategic rather than indicative of its absence. It is possible, and I’ll guess we’ll find out, that Israel wishes to occupy a buffer zone, ala southern Lebanon back in the day, in order to push back the rocketeers (and give it greater access for incursions). If this is the case, then I hope they turn over the buffer zone to the UN or NATO.
Alternatively, Israel might simply be degrading Hamas’ capabilities in the short term. If this is the case, then they must repeat this every six months. I don’t like this option, but at least it constitutes a logical strategy.
I don’t know why Israel doesn’t retake the Philadephi route. When Sharon pulled out of Gaza, including the Philadephi route, did anyone not see this day coming?
And, Spencer, I’m curious about this. Everybody roundly considers the 2006 Hezbollah war to be a disaster for Israel. Is it possible that we’re all missing the boat? I mean, there has been quiet on the norther front ever since the war. It might just be the case that, for all of Nasrallah’s bluster, he really did not enjoy all that much the destruction of southern Lebanon, and that he doesn’t wish for a repeat experience. Maybe, by raising the stakes, Israel bought some quiet, which, in theory, allows for a chance at peace. Perhaps the thinking is the same here in Gaza.