Via Patrick Appel at Andrew Sullivan’s place, defense theorist Thomas P.M. Barnett, or perhaps his colleague Sean Meade (it’s unclear who wrote this, exactly) has some kind-but-critical things to say about the Bush administration’s "strategic patience":
By sticking it out long enough, despite the high casualties, we simply waited long enough to take advantage of the Salafi jihadists’ natural tendency to go overboard with the locals. Abu Musab Zarqawi’s impatience to turn Iraq into al Qaeda’s global cause celeb led to brutality that eventually alienated Iraq’s Sunni tribes, yielding the "Anbar awakening" that signaled the beginning of General Petraeus’ somewhat successful rollback (or is it buyback?) of al Qaeda’s presence there.
The whole essay is worth reading — it’s rather subtle and thoughtful — but it’s unclear whether the author Barnett thinks this is actually exculpatory. Rather than demonstrate the virtue of "sticking it out long enough," Bush could have, I don’t know, not started an unnecessary war. It’s bewildering to consider it a point in the administration’s favor that its premier adversary in Iraq managed to be even more counterproductive, hubristic and prone to miscalculation. The essay as a whole is rather critical of the Bush administration, and I’m all for saying something nice every once in a while, but that point kind of muddies the broader picture.
Crossposted to The Streak.



5 Comments
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Thanks for pointing this out. I got about halfway through this and it’s one cogent little piece.
I’m particularly tickled with his mention of China’s “charm offensive”, which consists in getting behind our containment countries and spreading huge wads of cash in Iran, Africa and SE Asia.
Agreed. I’m tired of the ‘the only problem with the war was its execution’ mentality…
At the risk of self-promotion (I assure you, I earned it by slogging through two of Barnett’s books), let me suggest that Barnett has a host of odd ideas. Sorry, the .pdf takes a while to download.
He definitely does — I thought the Pentagon’s New Map was kind of a hash — but it’s still a good essay.
His ideas aren’t any odder than, say, Samantha Powers. Just different.
And he has been pretty consistent about his feelings about the Iraq War: he thinks it was potentially a good idea, and could have transformed the region. Unsurprising for someone who has a background in military thinking and grand strategies: he thinks military power, when followed up by nation building (by whatever name) can be transformative.
And in general, he has indicated he thinks that the second Bush term was more or less the same foreign policy that Kerry would have followed. (And I believe he was a Kerry supporter.)