You know what I didn’t really blog about today while Bob Gates was testifying? What he said about Afghanistan. That’s because he said so much about it, and in further depth than any other Obama administration cabinet officer/aspirant-officer to date, that I wanted to focus on that for my recently-published Washington Independent wrap piece:
Gates said Tuesday that he backs McKiernan’s request — but signaled that the troop spigot would not remain open. “I would be very skeptical about additional force levels beyond what Gen. McKiernan asked for,” Gates told the Senate panel. A former senior CIA official during the Russian invasion and occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s, Gates recalled that “the Soviets couldn’t win that war with 120,000 troops and a ruthless approach” to Afghan civilians, since they adopted “the wrong strategy.”
While not exactly spelling out what the right strategy for Afghanistan would be, Gates went further than any Obama official has to date in sketching what such an approach might look like. “Above all,” he said, “there must be an Afghan face on this war.” More important to Gates than increasing U.S. troop levels, he said, was increasing the numbers of Afghan security forces, and he said the government of Hamid Karzai supports a U.S.-backed effort to increase the Afghan National Army to 130,000 troops from its current 80,000, though he said he was unsure “even that number will be large enough.” At several points in the hearing, Gates worried that the U.S. was losing support from the Afghan people, saying that the U.S. has “lost the strategic communications war” to the Afghan insurgency about U.S.-caused civilian casualties. Proposing a policy of “first apologiz[ing]” when U.S. troops kill civilians in error, Gates said, “We have to get the balance right with the Afghan people or we will lose this war.”
Notice — you’ll see more of it if you RTWT — that Gates is making many of the critiques of the war that the Get Afghanistan Right coalition makes. Thinking of the war as a primarily military effort is a category error. Civilian casualties are potentially fatal to the entire enterprise. The Soviets put lots of troops in and failed. Of course, Gates is in favor of a sustained troop increase and they’re not, which is their central disagreement. But there’s a ton of common ground here, and — this is important — unlike the surge debate in Iraq, a willingness on the part of escalation’s proponents to grapple, almost endlessly, with the consequences of their course of action going wrong. You didn’t hear Gates demagogue the issue.
Nor, interestingly, have you seen the right demagogue the issue — or even, unless I’m missing a trove of debate, appear to engage the Afghanistan discussion much at all. Do people just, in the final analysis, not care very much about Afghanistan?
Tags: looooooooong war
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80,000, 130,000, 200,000. Just doesn’t matter.
Afghanistan is NOT a coherent, cohesive, integrated nation. It is an arbitrary geographic grouping of tribes and ethnicities with a very large underground agricultural economy managed by local warlords with weapons and funding provided by various international entities with different agendas.
Any indigenous security force will very likely be co opted, both from the bottom up and from the top down, and it will be very unhealthy to try to resist being co opted.
There no alternative source of prosperity to the poppy, and no way for an individual to increase his personal power without building a militia.
The only path to changing Afghanistan’s destiny is to turn it into a functional national entity with some kind of economy, some way for people to see a better future for their children, and some basis for national unity.
I just don’t see that happening…
mikey
Holder wins committee vote- only two “nays”.
The first thing that should happen in Afghanistan is to define the objective. If we go in with the nonsensical “win the war” objective that Bush had in Iraq, it’s hopeless. If we can find a way to protect our interests without getting intimately involved in who runs the place or how, it would be advanageous.
I’m currently re-reading James Morris’ three volume series on Victorian England and just finished the chapter in Heaven’s Command on the British in Afghanistan: many thousands in, only one made it out from Kabul to Jalahabad to describe the defeat.
I hope Gates et al. have library cards.
He gets it right when he gets the last American troop out of there.
The Russians must be ROTFLTAO at our idiocies. Get the goddamned troops OUT.
bingo
What is the American objective in Afghanistan? Is it an oil pipeline? If so, who does it serve?
yes, what is it we are there for? Stopping the Taliban. These folks control the tribal areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan. They don’t have an air arm, they don’t have full scale targets for a military operation. They are insurgents. Meaning, the local populace.
What is it good for? no really? What can we hope to do after killing so many of them? They are going to be our friends because we buy their heroin and transport it all over the world for them? Anyone will do that for them. Is it that profitable that we have to be the broker?
Is there a link to the reports of any governments about just what is supposed to be worth? The pipeline idea is a funny one. There couldn’t be more than 3 dozen tribes that can put it out of action on a given day, and they don’t like each other, distrust everyone else. Is it a habit that causes us to continue this expedition?
The sad thing is that unlike Iraq, Afghanistan actually would have had a chance — if it was being done by someone who had done it right from the start. However, the people capable of that were also smart enough not to invade Afghanistan in the first place.
Remember, Condi Rice’s alleged area of greatest expertise was Soviet Russia. How, as the righties never let us forget when they were talking up our deficit military spending, did we cause the Soviet Union to finally collapse? By forcing it to spend more than it could afford in first invading Afghanistan and then propping up its puppet government there. Funny how Condi forgot that part of the lesson. .
It really isn’t up to Gates to “get it right”, it’s up to Obama. Gate’s job is to achieve the objective- not to set it.
No, people don’t care about Afghanistan, except that we shouldn’t BE there. The Taliban are homegrown. Nobody’s invaded the place except us (currently)!
What’s happening to the population, especially women, under fundamentalist Muslim oppression is tragic, heartbreaking, and nobody knows what to do about it. Probably we should just watch and stand ready to lend a helping hand. Set up broadband access for the boonies via satellite, air-drop thousands of laptops, and give the population a chance to choose the 21st century. Back in the day, I suggested dropping cheeseburgers instead of napalm over Vietnam.
I was being cute, but I’ll bet things would have turned out lots differently.
It is not in the interest of the US to have an area in which radicals can train and plan violent acts against our nation. We need a way to keep that from happening short of having to try to run the whole fuckin country and defend it’s piece of shit government from revolution.
Actually, the Taliban, and Al Queda are partly american inventions. We helped create them by funding forces who were anti soviet- guess what? Turns out that they don’t like US much either.
Perhaps the William Morris Agency can get Condi a gig skating for Holiday On Ice…
Gates seems to establish some limits but like most of the commenters have asked, what is the policy? What is the strategy? The policy appears to be to keep the country relatively quiet and out of the hands of the Taliban. The strategy seems to be buy off a sufficient number of the warlords. The strategy and policy seem inherently at odds with each other. The warlords will continue to fight among themselves. This will keep the country, especially Pushtu areas, unstable and open to the Taliban.
The US question should be “OK- let’s cut the bullshit- who do I have to fuck in order to get what I want around here?”
The idea that the Secy of defense should be setting foreign policy objectives is WAY wrong….
i listened to most of the morning’s testimony. imo the hearing was not about foreign policy objectives or even tactics. it was a two-pronged propaganda effort. the first was aimed at americans to convince us not to oppose the occupation afghanistan and the second was aimed at the muslim word to convince them that obama’s foreign policy would be fundamentally different than bush’s.
our real national interests, our real strategy for the region, the expected humanitarian and financial costs (including opportunity costs) of our plans were never discussed during the time i was listening.
Can’t remember a time when americans were really told US foreign policy objectives. Wouldn’t want the WORLD to know em- and besides- that stuff is SO complicated- and easy to misunderstand- like the need to control oil producing reasons- lots of us won’t GET it.
lol. true. perhaps that is why i am especially irked to see gate’s propaganda treated as something other than what it is.
The main objective of any administration is to get the public to support whatever they want to do. It is not necessary, or even desirable, to tell them what you want to do.
Gates defined what we are there for as “ensuring that Afghanistan does not become a haven for terrorists.” He also limited the theater at least for now to the seven provinces along the Pakistan border that currently have “security problems”.
I would not jump to the conclusion that this yet represents Obama’s policy. I read it, given Gates’s disclaimers, as Gates’s default position for discussions with Obama.
the only way to guarantee that take it over and make it another state
You sure don’t think much of the troops, cursing them like that…
.
You KIDDING? Who’d eat a cheeseburger when you have Pho?
Yuck…
mikey
My father served three tours in Vietnam. You don’t know a goddamned thing about me.