The Swat valley in Pakistan might actually be center of the war on terrorism. Nestled in the northwest frontier province, Swat is home to the psychotic Pakistani Taliban, affiliated extremists, and quite possibly senior Al Qaeda and Taliban officials. I have discussed writing a young-adult book called Swat Valley High with another national-security wag.
In recent days, the Pakistani military has undertaken a major operation against the insurgents in Swat, although, as Bill Roggio writes, the results are still ambiguous. In an editorial mostly critical of the operation — its first two phases are "failures," apparently — Pakistan’s Daily Times newspaper makes a striking claim:
The TV channels, at first soft on the Taliban, have finally come around to seeing the terror in Swat for what it is. Swatis themselves have been intimidated into keeping silent about [self-appointed Swat ruler and extremist Maulana] Fazlullah and criticising only the army and its “collateral damage”. But the channels can no longer conceal the fact that the Swatis are now praying for America’s drone attacks in their valley as the last resort.
I am in no position to judge the truth of that statement, but if it’s even in spitting distance of accurate, that’s rather significant. On the one hand, Beitullah Massoud, leader of the Pakistani Taliban, and Fazlullah have taken actions that are reminiscent of those taken by the British and Russian invaders whom the Pashtun people thoughout history have resisted: through violence, they’ve sought to substitute their preferred system of governance for the organic, tribal structure that’s existed in the area for hundreds of years; and they’ve introduced new strictures on the way people practice religion. If the U.S. did that, people would be screaming bloody murder, and they’d be right to. But on the other hand, you don’t want to assume that people want to be, you know, bombed. That would be an awful thing to predicate a strategy upon. Clearly more information is needed here.
Crossposted to The Streak.



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One real interesting part of this is that it’s very likely that parts of ISI and the Army are working at cross purposes in Swat. OpSec is very likely a nightmare. If I was a Pakistani grunt, I would HAVE to presume that at least battalion leadership was compromised and every mission had an ambush or two in it.
But to your larger point, there’s always an element of wanting what you don’t have in these situations. The locals may very well be tiring of the restrictions being imposed on them by the Taliban, but once you push them out they may very well tire of the restrictions you impose on them and ask the Taliban to come back in and push you out.
Like Samantha Power said in your earlier piece, it’s just not enough to drive the extremists out if conditions for the people who live there don’t improve or actually worsen. When Obama and Gates and Petreaus start talking credibly about the issues at dirt level that foster or at least FEED the insurgencies, well, then we can start talking about doing something constructive instead of something that feels good because it’s loud…
mikey
Thank you for the Swat Valley High joke. I have been wanting someone to say that since I read the Times article about Swat valley on Sunday.
The name of the baseball team at SVHS?
The definitive commentary about Swat was provided by Edward Lear of immortal memory:
The Akond of Swat
WHO or why, or which, or what,
Is the Akond of SWAT?
Is he tall or short, or dark or fair?
Does he sit on a stool or a sofa or chair,
or SQUAT,
The Akond of Swat?
Is he wise or foolish, young or old?
Does he drink his soup and his coffee cold,
or HOT,
The Akond of Swat?
Does he sing or whistle, jabber or talk,
And when riding abroad does he gallop or walk,
or TROT,
The Akond of Swat?
Does he wear a turban, a fez, or a hat?
Does he sleep on a mattress, a bed, or a mat,
or a COT,
The Akond of Swat?
When he writes a copy in round-hand size,
Does he cross his T’s and finish his I’s
with a DOT,
The Akond of Swat?
Can he write a letter concisely clear
Without a speck or a smudge or smear
or BLOT,
The Akond of Swat!
Do his people like him extremely well?
Or do they, whenever they can, rebel,
or PLOT,
At the Akond of Swat?
If he catches them then, either old or young,
Does he have them chopped in pieces or hung,
or SHOT,
The Akond of Swat?
Do his people prig in the lanes or park?
Or even at times, when days are dark,
GAROTTE?
O the Akond of Swat!
Does he study the wants of his own dominion?
Or doesn’t he care for public opinion
a JOT,
The Akond of Swat?
To amuse his mind do his people show him
Pictures, or any one’s last new poem,
or WHAT,
For the Akond of Swat?
At night if he suddenly screams and wakes,
Do they bring him only a few small cakes,
or a LOT,
For the Akond of Swat?
Does he live on turnips, tea, or tripe?
Does he like his shawl to be marked with a stripe,
or a DOT,
The Akond of Swat?
Do he like to lie on his back in a boat
Like the lady who lived in that isle remote,
SHALLOTT,
The Akond of Swat?
Is he quiet, or always making a fuss?
Is his steward a Swiss or a Swede or a Russ,
or a SCOT,
The Akond of Swat?
Does he like to sit by the calm blue wave?
Or to sleep and snore in a dark green cave,
or a GROTT,
The Akond of Swat?
Does he drink small beer from a silver jug?
Or a bowl? or a glass? or a cup? or a mug?
or a POT,
The Akond of Swat?
Does he beat his wife with a gold-topped pipe,
When she lets the gooseberries grow too ripe,
or ROT,
The Akond of Swat?
Does he wear a white tie when he dines with friends,
And tie it neat in a bow with ends,
or a KNOT,
The Akond of Swat?
Does he like new cream, and hate mince-pies?
When he looks at the sun does he wink his eyes
or NOT,
The Akond of Swat.
Does he teach his subjects to roast and bake?
Does he sail about on an inland lake,
in a YACHT,
The Akond of Swat?
Some one, or nobody, knows, I wot,
Who or which or why or what
Is the Akond of Swat!
The MTV Unplugged version is the one I always hum in the shower.