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The results of last night’s election in Israel are still inconclusive. Even though the centrist Kadima Party, which looked slated to lose just weeks ago, eked out a surprising 29 seats, ahead of the right-wing Likud Party’s 28, the total number of seats held by right-wing parties appear to be sufficient to form a government. In order to forestall that, Kadima leader Tzipi Livni is holding talks with the ultra-right wing Yisrael Beiteinu Party, which demands loyalty oaths from Israel’s one million Arab citizens, about joining a Kadima-led coalition.
Whatever government emerges, the right-wing shift in Israeli politics has large implications for President Obama’s stated desire to broker an Israeli-Palestinian peace. The Washington Post:
Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. peace negotiator, offered this succinct appraisal of the election result: "This is like hanging a ‘closed for the season’ sign on any peacemaking for the next year or so."
Miller said even a broad unity government — one possible outcome — would be unable to agree on peace moves but could reach quick consensus on military strikes against Hamas or Hezbollah, such as the recent invasion of Gaza. "You may get a government good at war-making, not peacemaking," he said. "It’s really going to create a major headache for the administration."
I’ll have a Palestinian perspective on this later today. But here’s something to watch: assume that whatever government emerges has far-right elements that threaten to bolt whenever difficult peace-related measures are up for discussion, thereby threatening the viability of the governing coalition. Does that become an impetus for Obama and his envoy, George Mitchell, to do less, in order not to force a new election? Or does it lead them to press harder, in the hope that whatever emerges from a destabilized government will be more congenial to peace moves? And what will the next Israeli government fear more: collapsing or being considered an obstacle to peace by the Obama administration?
Crossposted to The Streak.
4 Comments
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I understand, obviously, that the elections in Israel has an impact on the peace process in the region. But I am wondering if its as dramatic as most people seem to think it is. Here is my thing, conventional wisdom says that if there is a hardliner right wing government in Israel that they will reject the peace process with the Palestinians. But here is the deal the way I see it, President Obama has the power (not saying he will choose to use it) to force their asses to the peace table regardless. We subsidize Israel in a major way. And the truth is if President Obama is serious about the peace process then our financial aid to Israel has to be on the table. If they want to go through another bloody and war mongering season then we should tell them that they will have to do it without our bombs and without our tanks and without our aircraft and in fact with out our money. I wouldn’t give a damn who won the election, if we REALLY want to give stability to that region thats the kind of choice President Obama is going to have to make. I understand that it will be politically risky if not somewhat of a political death sentence if it blows up in his face. But we still hold all the cards in this situation. The question is if we will choose to play them.
American aid should definitely be used as a threat. If Obama wants to help the situation the starting point is not to be threatening to end military aid.
That comes after he insists on an end to the land and water theft in the West Bank.
That comes after he insists on an end to the land and water theft in the West Bank.
good places to start
then (in some order)
- major checkpoint reductions
- halt to ALL settlement increases (even including population growth)
- a multi-national court to adjudicate land claims in the West Bank
- forbid resort to claims that Israel has no partner for negotiations
- require outside-access paths for medical, food and non-military supplies in West Bank and Gaza
- a firm plan for replacement of Israeli soldiers in West Bank with either multi-national forces and/or Palestinian police (with outside observers required)
- authorize outside forces to respond in strength against rockets and terrorist bombings against Israel.
Obama should incrementalize the path to separate nations and demand they be undertaken. Get a UN resolution to demand these items. Organize non-US outside forces to be inserted for stability.
There’s lots to be done that doesn’t require a final settlement.
Good stuff, but the multi-national force, greatly desirable, raises lots of practical difficulty. Got any ideas on how that would work?