but, but my blue dog congressman has 43,700 virtual signatures saying the people want it.

http://davidscott.house.gov/Ne…..tID=111201

They must have bigger garages than I do.

Well, you do get complete immunity from police radar guns.

Rage Against the Machines: Explaining Outcomes in Counterinsurgency Wars

During the nineteenth century, states routinely defeated insurgent foes. Over the twentieth century, however, this pattern reversed itself, with states increasingly less likely to defeat insurgents or avoid meeting at least some of their demands. What accounts for this pattern of outcomes in counterinsurgency (COIN) wars?

We argue that increasing mechanization within state militaries after World War I is primarily responsible for this shift. Unlike their nineteenth-century predecessors, modern militaries possess force structures that inhibit information collection among local populations. This not only complicates the process of sifting insurgents from noncombatants but increases the difficulty of selectively applying rewards and punishment among the fence-sitting population. Modern militaries may therefore inadvertently fuel, rather than deter, insurgencies.

We test this argument with a new data set of 286 insurgencies (1800 2004).
We find that higher levels of mechanization, along with external support for insurgents and the counterinsurgent’s status as an occupier, are associated with an increased probability of state defeat. By contrast, we find only partial support for conventional power- and regime-based explanations, and no support for the view that rough terrain favors insurgent success.

http://www.princeton.edu/~jlyall/Rage_Final.pdf

Author’s got some other interesting gear in the pipeline…
http://www.princeton.edu/~jlya…..search.htm

Yeah that one got some heavy pickup on SWJ. Haven’t read it yet though.

This argument sounds like the one made about 25 years ago that said that single cops on foot patrol better understood the needs and wishes of the community, and was less likely to inspire animosity, than squad car patrols.

Well like most COIN stuff, the argument might be persuasive but gets a little carried away with itself.

I got as far as the graph that shows the win/loss percentages from 1800 all the way through to 2005. Sure there might have been some mechanisation back then. Not really the most relevant military doctrine going on though.

I’d suggest that colonial powers slaughtering massive swathes of indigenous populations first and asking questions later would have had more relevance to how many insurgencies were successfully put down.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but some brown guy looking sideways at an Englishman used to be the definition of insurgency and the entire region would be too busy building coffins for the next 6 months to try it again.

It’s not like the period up until 1870 (the turning point) was any heyday in sophisticated integration with the locals when it came to who was fighting insurgencies. Not a lot of guys in pith helmets learning much more local dialogue than “tea, white” and “boots, polish”.