Jason Sigger combs through Adm. Mullen’s comment that Iran has enough low-enriched uranium for a bomb and observes:
So deliberately absent from this discussion are a few minor facts – that Iran would have to 1) move the LEU out from storage in full view of international inspectors, 2) use a lot more centrifuges to enrich the uranium, which still won’t be as good as highly-enriched uranium (HEU), 3) develop a nuclear warhead and prove it will work (maybe AQ Khan can help them), 4) develop a small enough nuclear warhead for a ballistic missile, and 5) convince the world that it wants to use its one nuclear weapon to blackmail Israel, Europe, and the United States. Sounds like a tall order.
It’s amazing to me how the military leadership and the political leaders in this administration want to keep the same opinions and make the same mistakes as the previous administration. That is to say, we have all these Very Serious People noting how we "can’t let Iran have the bomb" while refusing to consider the technical challenges in creating a nuclear bomb, refusing to consider Iran’s motives and diplomatic options, refusing to consider U.S., European, and Israeli options – diplomatic, intelligence, military and economic – and refusing to consider the years – decades – of nuclear weapons strategy that we’ve developed.
It seems to me that Jason’s a bit premature in his conclusion. I haven’t seen much sky-is-falling commentary since Mullen made his chat-show declaration. But I have little doubt that it’s just a matter of time before the film unspools the way Jason describes.
One of the more curious moments in Bob Gates’ Meet The Press appearance yesterday came when David Gregory asked Gates if the U.S. could compel an to the Iranian nuclear program "short of some kind of grand bargain." Well, what’s wrong with a grand bargain? If it turns out there’s no way of reaching such a bargain — Gates retorted with his usual quip about his decades-long search for The Iranian Moderate — that’s one thing. But to set the idea of a grand bargain as outside the scope of acceptable costs is to guarantee that we’re stuck with the same failed, futile or unappealing options as we’ve had for the past 30 years, and to probably ensure the continuation of the program. Indeed, Gregory fleshed out "grand bargain" by saying he meant "in other words, bigger carrots and bigger sticks," which goes to show how surface-deep the thinking on what a bargain might look like is.
Better to deal with the sources of Iranian/American hostility, as the Leveretts have proposed.



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Interestingly enough it was Pat Buchannan who shot down the notion that Iran is close to having a nuke this morning on Morning Joe. He actually took the time to break down all the steps they would have to take to turn the low grade uranium into weapons grade in front of the IAEA. Of course Scarborough wasn’t on this morning for some odd reason but I have to say I was expecting a lot of fear mongering after Mullen’s remarks
This is classic. You’re right that Jason is jumping the gun a little, but how can you blame him after what we’ve been through over the last few years regarding Iran.
Additionally, you’re right about the lack of deep thinking. The ‘carrot and stick’ approach will NOT work with Iran. The Revolutionary ideology, as dished out by the regime, does not care about the people. The worst sanctions the US could get passed will not actually convince the regime to ease up for their people.
It seems that the current US strategy, while not the same as Bush, really doesn’t have anything new, nor the leadership demonstrated a desire to be creative. It’s the same questions of ‘what can we do to force them to acquiesce?’, or ‘will they comply if we threaten with X or Y?’. They need to determine what they can offer Iran to get them to relax a little bit. This is what they want. While Khamenei is the most important obstacle, and a little US ‘carrot’ won’t change his deep mistrust with the US, it will do a lot to prove to Iran’s reformists and people (who by the way, despite their moderate stances deep down don’t yet believe in US ‘change’ towards Iran policy) to believe and pressure their government into a better improvement in bilateral relations. http://commera.blogspot.com
Assume you mean, compel an end?
Isn’t the question why is Mullen making dumbass statements about Iran’s nuclear program? or why he is doing so without adding in the appropriate caveats? And along these lines why is Obama letting him do this?
There is no reason why Iran can’t do what is required to produce some bombs- left to their own devices I suspect that they will- Pakistan did it- North Korea did it- it’s not THAT difficult. The issue is whether or not the rest of the world should allow it.
naaaww .. imo the issue is how can the rest of the world STOP it ?? short of main force … any ideas ??
N. Korea & Pak didn’t have hot & cold running inspectors. If Iran were to do it, they’d have to kick out the inspectors, and that would give the world a tad bit of warning.
So what if Iran has a nuke?
Just guessing, but I think the U.S. has never gotten over the embassy takeover. That, and AIPAC.
Which rather gets to the point that if Iran had really wanted the bomb it could have had one years ago.
AND THE KILLIN GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen Specer Ackerman:
Thank you for the post…do you think that the last two weeks we have seen the Obama administration lose control of the military and the security bureaucrats and that the speed at which damning evidence is comin’ to light in the courts on illegal surveillance and torture is pushing us to a crisis point between the civilian administration and the professional military and secret police?
I am amazed that Gates and Mullen ken get on television and undermine the Department of State when major envoys are in the field…what the fuck is up with that??!!!
KEEP THE FAITH AND PASS THE AMMUNITION, THE GENERALS AREN’T LISTENING AGAIN!!
I think that Obama hasn’t lost control of the military. I think he never had it.
Citizen Hugh:
Bingo, you got the coverall now do ya want butter AND cheese on that popcorn?
Hey, the McVeigh wing of the GOP may be back in the game.
4 tons of fertilizer go missing.
-G
I just spent a couple hours writing almost the same thing that Jason Sigger did. Physics Today wrote a couple weeks ago that this was a lot of hooey, yet a flag officer went on TV to say this. I really wish they’d read their own reports.
Except that I don’t find it amazing that the Obama Administration is doing much of what the Bush Administration did here. From the beginning, Obama’s positions on Iran have been clear, and no one who was listening to what he said then should be surprised at what’s happening now.
It’s not difficult, but it is time consuming, and they have to make the effort (as Hugh observed). It’s pretty clear that they’re not there yet, either logistically or philosophically.
Citizen eCAHNomics:
Thanx for the clarification, I ain’t always that precise in my comments but I think that we are missin’ the big picture and that is that we are rapidly approaching a crisis point where Obama is gunna find out if he’s got a pair a balls half the size of Harry Truman’s and will start firin’ folks, summarily in public…like right now even!!
Yep.
Or to generalize, the difference between the right and the left on foreign policy, is that the left wants to bomb for humanitarian reasons too.
It’s not just Obama, it’s the whole sorry mess of them.
A great many of them, that’s for sure. I don’t think Hillary Clinton’s position on Iran was significantly different from Obama’s, for instance. It’s troubling that so many have drank the Koolaid on this issue, because there’s no reason to be worried about this yet, and there are plenty of real worries.
We might need some technical input from Michelle to assess that one. *g*
I’m still a foreign policy neophyte, having started reading on the subject only after 9/11. But I finally figured out that the only VSP left in the field are hawks.
It’s an interesting historical oddity that Iran started it’s nuclear power business with support from the US during the Shah years. They’ve been at this a long time! I have no idea how far they are away from manufacturing a bomb- say 5-10 years? Still, we need to decide if we are going to try to stop in and HOW.
The time horizon shouldn’t keep a current administration from taking a position and forming a plan.
Truman fired Dugout Doug MacArthur long after he should have. It is hard to calculate how many troops died in Korea (a place MacArthur NEVER spent a night) because of that clown.
I think people who are really serious recognize war as a possibility, but it’s the least desirable, and in many ways the least practical. We’ve accomplished nearly every goal we have with respect to Iran by peaceful means in other situations. There are rare times when putting a smoking hole in some bit of real estate makes things better, but it usually has the opposite effect. It usually just makes the side whose real estate that is even more intransigent.
I sometimes think we took World War II as being a normal war, where there was a very final outcome. Many wars end because both sides finally realize they’re not getting anywhere. Why not just get to that final stage without all the bother?
The problem with all the VSPs we’re talking about is that they seem to have decided all those other courses of action aren’t even worth trying, or are just a ritual you go through on your way to starting the war.
I agree, at least about the current Administration needing to have a plan. Hopefully, they’re creating one. It’s just not an emergency. I’d say they’re toward the low end of your range – five years – assuming that they want to be. It should be easy to make it worth their while to not go there. It’s really a whole other level of manufacturing required to get from reactor fuel to weapons fuel. The tech is the same, but it’s applied differently. Plus, you then have to have a facility to build the bombs. Assuming you want to do that safely, that’s some serious expense as well.
The U.S. military is a very big hammer. That’s why ever problem looks like war to the VSPs.
Like Palestine-Israel, everyone knows what the right plan is for Iran’s nuclear power program. It’s the grand bargain, where we promise not to attack them, and the fuel is provided under some long-run, irrevocable contract administered by some reliable body. And like Palestine-Israel, the obvious will never happen.
What does Iran still have that we want so much? Their last remaining reserves of oil? Is there something else we can’t get to unless we wipe the populace out?
The military doesn’t seem to rational these days. We get mainly General Turgidson types that really blister up when they are reminded they take orders before they give them.
Even the situation we have now is a fairly good one, should all sides agree to leave it that way. They’ll be years away from building a bomb until they try to start building one. Given the level of molybdenum in Iran’s own uranium deposits, making any nuclear fuel is more difficult, particularly weapons-grade fuel. As long as the inspectors are there, it’s unlikely there’s going to be an Iranian nuke. And as long as Iran uses nuclear power, even if they don’t refine the fuel themselves, there will always have to be inspectors.
disagree. the left uses humanitarian lies to justify war, but those are not their reasons (they are too willing to support or overlook even genocide when it suits their purposes).
it’s just a way to garner support from us – just like the right is more likely to use fear.
in terms of actual policy, i think the differences at least recently are that the left is more likely to use economic warfare to kill and control than the right.
everyone except the people who now have the power to make the decisions. it’s just the normal way of things that ordinary people have to be politically engaged and organize in order to effect change. because change does happen – it’s not impossible. it’s just very very hard.
what’s not normal is how utterly our elite (and not just ours) are failing.
Thanks Spencer,
digg is open.
With the American Admiral Mullen inflating the “Iran can get a nuke” balloon again one is left wondering is he really that dogmatic despite all the evidence Iran is far away from having a nuclear weapon anytime soon?
It surely does seem the Pentagon has an ongoing and compulsive addiction to keep Iran in the “scary boogeyman” column. Way too many years of of the same mantras in this high repeat Pentagon self repeat have led to this very lazy set of dogmatic quotes and verses being stated over and over.
The Pentagon truly has had too much money for too long and the laziness that has brought on combined with a moronic Pentagon set of global viewing points ensures Americans will willy nilly be getting sucked into another Vietnam Debacle in Afghanistan to be sure with one in Iran only one or two steps away as well.
It surely would be a great idea to zero time the top echelons of the Pentagon over the next four years President Obama. President Obama you are the American President are you not?
President Obama clean out the Pentagon. Strap on a set and confront the Pentagon brass. Time for a clean sweep.
Americans will more and more have no credibility if WashingtonDC insists on continuing with demonizning Iran over what it does not have while Israel does have atomic weapons and is not abiding atomic treaties and is in full contempt of atomic weapons treaties and protocols.
Iran is not the monster WashingtonDC insists it is.
Israel is not the friend or the innocent WashingtonDC insists it is.
President Obama’s failure to bring about much needed resets at the Pentagon and in American/Israeli affairs will condemn Americans to outcomes worse than what Americans experienced in Vietnam or now again in Iraq.
Clean out the Pentagon. Get better,smarter,more competent leadership.
For the sake of war weary Americans and the Iranian people. Spare the Iranian people what Americans have now done to the Iraqi people.
Iran during past five years has been much more peaceful in conduct then Israel and the Israelis. See Lebanon. See Gaza. See West Bank.
Who is doing what to who? President Obama? Who has atomic weapons in ME?
Which country?
We helped Iran have the money to work on a bomb because of our love for oil. It was our meddling with the Shaw that turned Iran against us. All we have done since is things to make them our enemies. They watch CNN and the talk when we went into Iraq that we could also go into Iran while we were there. We named them as one of the axis of evil and invaded Iraq another of the axis of evil. Now we want them to do what we say they should. We will never admit that we create our own problems make our own enemies and aren’t half as smart as we think we are. Our Militray those great Generals are our biggest problem because they make policy toward the world and the civilians listen to them.
We must liquidate the Generals now!!!