Yesterday Noah Shachtman asked if the U.S. was really at war in Pakistan. Today President Obama made it clear: yes, the war is in Pakistan, with an inextricable Afghanistan component. The goal is "to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and to prevent their return to either country in the future," he said. That’s the right emphasis, given the safe havens for al-Qaeda are in Pakistan, and it’s significant that the first substantive portion of Obama’s speech spelling out the new strategy was devoted to Pakistan, not Afghanistan. But the dilemma is that the U.S. can only devote so many resources — economic, political and especially military — into Pakistan.
Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wisc.), after offering cautious praise for the strategy, observes:
However, I am concerned that the new strategy may still be overly Afghan-centric when it needs to be even more regional. As the bombing near the Khyber pass this morning highlights, we need to fully address the inextricable links between the crisis in Afghanistan and the instability and terrorist threats in Pakistan.
Feingold calls for an "adequate" strategy in Pakistan but doesn’t spell out what that would be. But the question of whether the new strategy is insufficiently regional runs right into the problem of Pakistani sovereignty and cooperation. Obama — and, for that matter, George W. Bush – has no choice but to employ indirection as a result. He pledged greater resources to training Pakistani troops in "root[ing] out the terrorists," which is to say making them a better counterinsurgent force, and what sounds like a large U.S.-led international effort at statebuilding, including essentially an infrastructure-heavy stimulus package in the Pakistani tribal areas. Then there’s sustained diplomacy with the entire region, along with the U.N., to get everyone behind the Pakistani government.
That raises a huge number of questions. For instance: Who’s going to implement these "opportunity zones in the border region" when the Pakistan side of the border is overrun with insurgents? When the Pakistani military cuts deals with the Taliban and adds to the safe havens, what force will there be to secure the projects, give people jobs, and get them turning dirt? The trouble is that there isn’t an obviously better alternative to what will very likely be a graft-heavy process of moving money around, special inspector-generals or not. Right now, the money we give the Pakistanis are, literally, untraceable cash transfers. That’s how the Pakistani military likes it. Will that change?



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Thanks Spencer.
digg is open
The last paragraph says it all. Has the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) stopped supporting Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Not according to the following Telegraph article. That being the case, how in the hell can the US hope to do anything constructive in either Afghanistan or Pakistan. Oh I know that one; send in more troops!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new…..gency.html
We are still giving Pakistan money whats the total in billions so far? Drop them from the payroll tell them give us Ossama or no more cash ever, no trade, we will seize your bank accounts under anti terror laws, your kids will never go to any of our schools to study again or are allies schools.
The Elite in Pakistan like the status associated with their kids having degrees from Western Universities.
Take away their desires tell the Pakastani military that a country that cannot control its own borders from terrorists like Ossama can’t have nuclear weapons or nuclear reactor technology because we fear it might get into Ossama’s hands.
The Pakastani Generals will take the hint.
Seems to me that we don’t pay Pakistan to help us, we pay to prevent them from telling us to go to hell.
Obama’s speech was only a slightly more articulate resurrection of W-speak. Be afraid. Be very afraid. AQ is just waiting to attack you in your bed at night, and I will save you.
No mention that the violence is mainly a Pashtun insurgency against foreign occupation, which will only be made worse by the addition of troops.
I think it’s $13 billion since 9/11.
That’s a great way to win hearts & minds.
Ok and still no Ossama Forget it lets just go home. I like Obama but I don’t see how Obama can get Pakistan to do anything to help us. I don’t see any plan from the army working either Bush and our generals had years to come up with a plan.
They never came up with one so why start now?
They already have the technology, the reactors and the weapons.
Do you mean that we hint that we’re going to take these things away?
If 13 billion can’t win a heart then maybe its time for the stick you can’t let people walk all over you.
whether i agree w/ obama’s plan or not – the expression on his face, tone of his voice & body language as he left the room was something i have never seen in him before. it caused me to take a moment to send a send positive thought his way & ask my friends to do likewise.
Yes we hint we are crazy enough to do an Israeli style airstrike to save our National honor after being taken for $13 billion we impose the sanctions I mentioned we light a fire under their butt and show them we are serious.
Sure a military strike is a buff the sanctions are at best annoying.
But yes bluffing is allowed in diplomacy. I would like to see if Obama can run a good bluff.
What the U.S. is doing in Pakistan is insane and Pakistan (last I looked) is a sovereign country and has every right not to tie in with the insanity.
The only Pak troops that should be allowed to fight in the troubled region are Pashtuns, as other ethnic troops would raise tensions within that ethnically diverse country. And Pashtuns won’t fight their co-ethnic group just because the U.S. sez they should. Any such plan is guaranteed to make the situation much worse.
Is that what you want to force the Paks to do?
tcu, you really can’t bluff on this.
You’re on much better ground dealing with Pakistan in different ways and on other of their concerns.
Punish the Saudis who fund Ossama cut the military budget in half then put people to work building hybrid cars. A bring in your old car for recycling get a new hybrid in exchange program for every car 5 years old or younger.
That would put lots of people to work and cut our oil demand real quick. Then we tell the Saudis give us Ossama we know you pay him.
Or every American car plant in Europe and Asia will all be making hybrids!
Imagine how low oil prices would get on that news. Plus lower oil prices help the economy.
Aren’t you going a little too far in saying that only Pashtuns should be allowed to fight in the region?
Agreed we either do something else or leave I suggested something else. I like my something else a lot better than giving them another penny.
But I’m cool with leaving too.
You and eCHAN don’t like my ideas fine I can accede to the majority but can we at least agree then on get our troops home and no more cash?
Can’t remember where I picked that up; either Juan Cole or someone on antiwar.com. That’s the way the expert described it. Like asking people to fight their own tribes. Sorry, I’ve got no link, but that’s the way I remember it. Was in the context of explaining why the Pak military forays of a couple of years ago were so unsuccessful, including lots of dessertions.
Absent troops on the ground, the only other option is bombing, which kills many more civilians than perps.
Troops home is the first step, and a big one, in reducing violence.
I don’t think the Saudis finance OBL any more.
They do fund fundamentalist religious schools in Pakistan. Hurt the Saudis cash flow get them to stop spreading the ideas that inspired Ossama by taking away their ability to pay for these schools throughout the world.
Economic warfare nobody gets killed we still get what we want.
It just seems like an odd idea. Do you segregate the Pakistani military?
I f I remember correctly, the Pashtuns are about 1/7th of the population and are already bringing violence to areas outside of their tribal base.
Do our Generals in the Pentagon even consider economic warfare ever or is it all just guns with them? Do they ever talk to the State Dept the Commerce Dept and come up with plans?
There maybe some problems with telling nuclear Pakistan they have to obey US orders – how do we take away their nuclear weapons again?
It seems to me “with us or against us” diplomacy doesn’t work out all that well.
ISI needs to have a path forward that leads to less support for Taliban/al Queda (while keeping humint assets intact – hard to do). My hope is our diplomatic efforts can give ISI a path towards wider legitimacy among Pakistanis in a way that decreases Pakistani unrest while also decreasing exportation of militants. That’s going to be very difficult.
Yes, economics are always considered.
You might have noticed that in the last couple of yours in Iraq that we have used money to redirect some of the Sunnis.
My impression is that Pakistan is more dysfunctional than usual and may be failing. I have not seen much analysis on this although a lot of fear and concern has been expressed.
The situation is made more precarious because of the worldwide downturn. This could not have happened at a worst time for the country. I think we should in particular be sounding out the Indians about what they think is going on there and what, if anything, they might do about it. I would also be in contact to a lesser extent with both the Iranians and the Chinese, and probably the Saudis as well.
Juan Cole has a recent article on Pakistani views on drone attacks.
In case I was clear @25 – ISI has to have intelligence assets (spies) that are literally in bed with al Queda. Historically ISI has been friendly and helped Taliban/al Queda operationally. It’s very hard to fight against someone when they helped pull you out of a firefight, yet the ISI members best able to report on al Queda are also most likely to have been in those types of situations that breed dual loyalties.
Look at my 13 we bluff them we stop paying them. But yes we can always do an airstrike and if the fundamentalists take over the country we will do that no bluff.
The time for working with Pakistan is over Actually it never begun they took our money and played us for chumps.
Time to leave close our wallet close the door as best we can diplomatically its amazing how sometimes the very real threat of leaving can cause a change in behavior.
We come back only when we see real change. We with our cash, guns etc cannot fix Pakistan or change her she must change herself we can walk away though.
Is Pakistan naive enough to be bluffed?
I’m more than skeptical of your ideas, I think they’re ill conceived. Stop working with a nuclear armed country with serious internal political problems?
Unaccounted for cash should stop. It undermines Pakistani society. It also doesn’t serve US ends well.
Cutting off aid all together seems counterproductive – providing clean water, sanitation, transportation infrastructure helps a non-militant population develop positive views on the US, and also on the Pakistani civil government.