Great piece from the New York Times‘ Jane Perlez about the Pakistani army’s impending urban combat with the Taliban in the Swat Valley city of Mingora. About 10,000 civilians remain in the mostly-empty city, if the government’s claims are to be considered credible, and the Taliban appear to be awaiting an army that has, in the AP’s flat phrase, "limited experience battling guerrillas in urban settings."
In the course of replying to my query about his thoughts on ending the drone strikes — and really read his whole post — Bill Roggio reminds that Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the commander of the Pakistani military, isn’t so hot on counterinsurgency. ("[E]xcept for very specialized weapons and equipment, high technology, no generalized foreign training is required.") More broadly, the Pakistani appetite for a protracted counterinsurgency campaign remains unproven.
Crossposted to The Streak.



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Wonder how much COIN is going to be on Kayani’s agenda in Brussels today. His Sarkozy meeting seemed to be framed to follow on the Zadari talks in Paris about a French-Pakistan nuclear deal a la the US-India.
Hopefully that’s being coordinated with DC to reinforce French commitment to Af-Pak — including the COIN angle. We’ve got enough mischief-makers in the region as it is.
And you’re right about the urban warfare. It looks like they’re slowly getting organized for house-to-house. And it’s not a force trained for that. Yikes is all I can say.