The announcement that President Obama will first travel to Riyadh before his speech in Cairo has, according to Mark Lynch, set the Arab media abuzzing. The initial response centered around traditional Egyptian-Saudi rivalry, which regime is weaker, which is seen more positively by the new President, will Obama critique the one or both regimes in his speech, and so forth.

But Mark notes that speculation has now moved to searching for "greater significance", if any, in Obama choosing to visit both principal centers of the Arab world. Is Obama focused more on resolving the Israeli-Palestine conflict in the frame of broader Israeli-Arab relations, or is Obama laying the groundwork with the Saudis for dealing with Iran.

Mark, however, has an interesting take on Obama’s trip that goes beyond any one set of issues.

The key question for Obama’s trip the region, his speech, and his strategic approach both to Iran and the Israeli-Arab tracks is this:  will he reinforce or challenge the "moderates vs resistance" frame which he inherited from the Bush administration?   The Arab leaders he has been meeting, like the Israelis, are perfectly comfortable with that approach, dividing the region between Israel and Arab "moderates" vs Iran and Arab "resistance" groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.  That’s the easy path.  If followed it is likely to fail badly, destroy the hopes for change which his engagement policy has raised, and leave the region right back where Bush left it. But I think — and hope — that Obama will not fall into that trap. 

He has an opportunity over the next few weeks — with the unveiling of his approach to Israel and the Palestinians, the response to the Lebanese and Iranian elections, and his Cairo speech –  to break down those tired, dangerous, and unpopular lines of division. And if he chooses to do that, to really challenge the unsustainable status quo, then Riyadh and Cairo are the right place to start. 

 Interesting angle for evaluating the events of the coming weeks.

Cross-posted at American Footprints.