I think that within most insurgent and seperatist orgnanizations operating today, there is a recognition that the “Hezbollah Model” represents a key to success. Unfortunately, the quality of the field commanders will always be uneven, and those who are lazy and impatient will undercut their own successes with violence and intimidation.

But it is inarguable that in many places with corrupt and/or ineffectual governments, the ability of an insurgent group to deliver real services to the population, protect them from crime and predatory abuse, help them feed and educate their children and deliver something the population will identify as justice will provide them with a base of support and even more importantly a broad credibility with which armies of bureaucrats simply cannot compete.

That said, it’s difficult to do right. To deliver government-level services, even regionally, requires government-level resources and the ability to bring them to bear. If the government, despite being backed by the US and NATO cannot find a way to deliver governance and justice in it’s own country, it’s unclear how another US and NATO backed organization might succeed.

Devenny’s underlying point – that the battle in Afghanistan will be won by whoever can successfully deliver government services, economic opportunity and the rule of law to the village level – is obviously true, and to whatever extent that the American effort in the region can be driven by these goals rather than anything that might be recognized as a “military victory” will enhance it’s (somewhat dim) prospects for success…

mikey

It’s just after midnight.