My wrap of the McChrystal hearing on Afghanistan, just out from the Washington Independent. About 70 percent of it is me acting like Andrew Exum is my assignment editor. To wit:
Although McChrystal comes from a background in special operations and oversaw task forces charged with manhunts for specific high-value terrorists, he repeatedly emphasized how his approach in Afghanistan would be guided by “classic counterinsurgency” precepts, such as protecting the population from insurgent assaults, rather than focusing primarily on killing and capturing insurgents. A “military-centric” strategy would not succeed, he told senators, and pledged to review “all” standard practices and rules of engagement to minimize civilian casualties, which have outraged Afghans and jeopardized the United States’ relationship with the Karzai government. Losing the support of the Afghan population would be “strategically decisive,” McChrystal said, meaning the war would be lost, and said he believed that adverse perceptions of the U.S. caused by civilian casualties is “one of the most dangerous enemies we face” in Afghanistan. Success will ultimately be measured by “the number of Afghans shielded from violence.”
Over at Democracy Arsenal, Michael Cohen reads some of my McChrystal coverage and is dismayed to learn the general is a dyed in the wool counterinsurgent. I tend to agree with Michael’s overall fear that counterinsurgency is uncomfortably commensurate with imperialism. But unless you’re willing to make that the end of the conversation on McChrystal, or counterinsurgency — and I think that’s a mistake; it should be an entrance into a discussion — his specific concerns are rather overstated. For one thing, Michael reads McChrystal’s assertion that the U.S. should assist the Afghan people "with an opportunity to shape their future" and comments:
Our focus needs to be degrading the enemy, not some amorphous counter-insurgency goal.
It’s worth asking a simple question here. What’s in it for the Afghan civilian to cooperate with the U.S., actively or passively, against the Taliban, if the U.S. doesn’t provide for her basic needs? Degrading the enemy (by which Michael means killing or capturing him, not, like, humiliating him) is a worthy goal in a necessary war, and McChrystal said as much during his hearing. (I apologize if my reporting contributed to any misimpression to the contrary.) But insurgencies live and die through popular support, and the soldiers and marines in charge of "degrading" the enemy are not going to be able to distinguish between enemy and civilian without the support of the civilians themselves. And that goes back to the question of what incentives exist for our Afghan civilian to bandwagon with the U.S./Kabul-government side rather than the insurgent side, and how the U.S./Kabul-government side can tip those incentives in their favor. Without doing that, the degradation of the enemy is going to be a non-starter. Herein lies the value of a counterinsurgency campaign. McChrystal’s specific value-added here is, of course, unproven as yet, but it’s sensible to want a commander who understands this dynamic.
Now perhaps Afghanistan really is unwinnable at this point. I’m unconvinced of that proposition, but it would be foolish to rule it out. If so, it won’t be because counterinsurgency has created an impossible task. It’ll be because — well, it’ll be because of many things, but among them will be the enemy-centric approach of the last eight years of the war have foreclosed a population-centric strategy as an option.



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I’m going to stick my neck out here and say that, in the context of a conflict of this nature, “degrading the enemy” is code for genocide. Which is not to accuse Cohen of advocating for such, but rather to indicate that he should think more carefully about what he’s actually suggesting before he puts it in writing in an eternal format.
But what if Afghanistan is unwinnable? Does American counterinsurgency allow for the possibility of just declaring victory and walking away? Or is it really just tactical semiwar with a few Swarovskis pasted on it?
Just gotta say, I’ve been waiting for you to use this headline for weeks. Thanks!
To whatever extent that the Taliban is a threat to the United States, which is to say that American interests are directly tied to the governance of a small South Asian nation, then ok, sure, let’s have this conversation.
Can the Taliban successfully topple the Karzai government as it is currently constituted and supported? No, they clearly cannot. This is a rural insurgency, and the fight is in the countryside. The villages and the farms and the tribes in the hinterlands. And really, in that fight, what role does massive lethality of modern combined arms do for you? The answer seems obvious.
You have to be able to deliver government services, economic opportunity, education, infrastructure and security to tens of thousands of widely scattered small-scale population centers throughout the county. If we were to be honest, we would recognize that would require a commitment we are unwilling to make, and therefore the entire exercise is one of political theater and misdirection, an albatross hung around the neck of the American economy because to remove it would be personally politically costly to the leadership.
If anyone can actually explain in realistic and cogent terms how America’s best interests are represented by a half-assed military occupation of Afghanistan, I’d love to hear it. But we cannot hope to solve the problems that would have to be solved to meet the goals for even a minimal self-sustaining Afghanistan. It would be cheaper and no less effective to pull all the troops and just prop them up economically. And if the Taliban actually achieved power in Afghanistan, it would be a tragedy for the Afghani people, but to accept that as America’s responsibility would call into question our role in human tragedies and failed states from Somalia to Sudan to Nigeria…
mikey