I didn’t see today’s State Department presser, but Ben Smith did, and he passes on word that spokesman Ian Kelly "would not confirm or deny" today’s Ha’aretz report that Iran troubleshooter Dennis Ross has been ousted. It reads to me from the quotes that Ben provides ("He has not been fired. He is not being ousted.") that Kelly sort of did deny it, but I’ll take Ben’s word for it. Transcript should be emailed soon. Also, no one’s called me back on this.
Update: More from Laura Rozen, who doesn’t believe that Ross is on the outs. But I do wonder about this:
Ross would seem to have been strengthened inside the interagency process by the recent tumult in Iran, which some veteran Iran analysts describe as an attempted coup by hard-liners to preemptively declare incumbent president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the winner of Friday’s contested presidential elections.
Isn’t that a premature conclusion? While it’s no doubt certain that the opposition is going to prevail, it could be that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s decision to inquire into vote fraud is the first step in backing the regime down from the brink of growing civil unrest, recognizing that its attempt at a coup was a miscalculation. And if that is the case, then it’s premature to say that Obama’s got to turn to his hardliners for an effective policy. That’s hardly a guarantee, since God only knows how a chastened regime will behave internationally — maybe it’ll grow more intransigent and bellicose consolidate internal calm — but it’s way too soon to say that reckless regime action narrows Obama’s possible responses. Contrary to what Ezra Klein writes, not every forseeable outcome is a depressing one.
Update 2: Here’s the transcript. It really does seem like Kelly denied the report.
Update 3: Time backs up Ha’aretz. "He is closer to being able to provide advice to the President," an official tells Massimo Calabresi and Michael Scherer.
Crossposted to The Streak.
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I find it kind of amazing that even in such a interconnected world, there’s still enough confusion that we can’t say with any certainty what’s actually happening, much less what is going to happen.
The decision to inquire into vote fraud could be a good-faith measure to defuse a volatile situation, or it could be a stall to prepare the security forces for a more systematic crackdown. It could start as one and turn into the other. There’s just no way to know.
What seems clear to me is that the outcome of this situation will hinge on the decisions made by a few people in positions of power (Rafsanjani, Mousavi, Khamenei) through a process that is almost completely opaque. While the demonstrations on the street, the violent response of the Basij, and the storming of the university are all clouding the picture, I can’t shake the feeling that all of this depends on how far Mousavi is willing to push the envelope and how far Khamenei is willing to let him push it.
I’d recommend Drezner’s entry on this issue. It’s one of these moments that give structuralist theorists of IR fits, which means that it’s exciting, terrifying, and very very hard to predict.