Comments on: I’m Still Here, Swizzy, I’m Still Here http://attackerman.firedoglake.com/2009/06/15/im-still-here-swizzy-im-still-here/ Wed, 05 Jan 2011 21:59:36 -0600 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.2 By: Statler http://attackerman.firedoglake.com/2009/06/15/im-still-here-swizzy-im-still-here/#comment-10965 Statler Mon, 15 Jun 2009 18:44:21 +0000 http://attackerman.firedoglake.com/2009/06/15/im-still-here-swizzy-im-still-here/#comment-10965 <p>I find it kind of amazing that even in such a interconnected world, there’s still enough confusion that we can’t say with any certainty what’s actually happening, much less what is going to happen. </p> <p>The decision to inquire into vote fraud could be a good-faith measure to defuse a volatile situation, or it could be a stall to prepare the security forces for a more systematic crackdown. It could start as one and turn into the other. There’s just no way to know.</p> <p>What seems clear to me is that the outcome of this situation will hinge on the decisions made by a few people in positions of power (Rafsanjani, Mousavi, Khamenei) through a process that is almost completely opaque. While the demonstrations on the street, the violent response of the Basij, and the storming of the university are all clouding the picture, I can’t shake the feeling that all of this depends on how far Mousavi is willing to push the envelope and how far Khamenei is willing to let him push it. </p> <p>I’d recommend <a href="http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/06/15/what_happens_next_in_iran" rel="nofollow">Drezner’s entry</a> on this issue. It’s one of these moments that give structuralist theorists of IR fits, which means that it’s exciting, terrifying, and very very hard to predict.</p> I find it kind of amazing that even in such a interconnected world, there’s still enough confusion that we can’t say with any certainty what’s actually happening, much less what is going to happen.

The decision to inquire into vote fraud could be a good-faith measure to defuse a volatile situation, or it could be a stall to prepare the security forces for a more systematic crackdown. It could start as one and turn into the other. There’s just no way to know.

What seems clear to me is that the outcome of this situation will hinge on the decisions made by a few people in positions of power (Rafsanjani, Mousavi, Khamenei) through a process that is almost completely opaque. While the demonstrations on the street, the violent response of the Basij, and the storming of the university are all clouding the picture, I can’t shake the feeling that all of this depends on how far Mousavi is willing to push the envelope and how far Khamenei is willing to let him push it.

I’d recommend Drezner’s entry on this issue. It’s one of these moments that give structuralist theorists of IR fits, which means that it’s exciting, terrifying, and very very hard to predict.

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