Those who’ve followed Peter Galbraith’s career won’t be surprised by his pained, scathing and impassioned op-ed in the Washington Post indicting the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan — which fired him last week — for effectively siding with Hamid Karzai in the theft of the Afghan presidential election. This is a guy who snuck into Iraq to document Saddam Hussein’s genocide of the Kurds against the wishes of his bosses on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (fun fact: Galbraith’s ally and deputy at the time was Chris Van Hollen) and tried to force the Reagan administration to cut off arms sales; and who, as ambassador to Croatia, secretly helped break the arms embargo to Bosnia that ensured the vulnerability of Bosnian Muslims for the Serb onslaught. Assessments like this are simply par for the course:
The fraud has handed the Taliban its greatest strategic victory in eight years of fighting the United States and its Afghan partners.
So the Taliban win the election by default, with U.N. complicity. Nice little parting fuck-you-too there, huh?
Outside the realm of biography, two points remain. First, to play devil’s advocate for a moment, it’s actually unclear from Galbraith’s piece whether that assessment is true. The greatest danger he identifies is that the election results in a Tajik refusal to support the government, and since the Tajiks are rather unlikely to make common cause with the Taliban they’ve been fighting for over ten years, it’s a bit puzzling. I suppose I’m overthinking this, as the general taint of illegitimacy of the election is assured to have widespread consequences, most of which benefit the Taliban, even if not all of the benefits are direct ones. But it’s still worth putting a bit of stress on the idea.
Second, and relatedly, check out Dave Kilcullen’s prescription for Afghanistan in the New York Times:
COUNTERINSURGENCY is only as good as the government it supports. NATO could do everything right — it isn’t — but will still fail unless Afghans trust their government. Without essential reform, merely making the government more efficient or extending its reach will just make things worse.
Only a legitimately elected Afghan president can enact reforms, so at the very least we need to see a genuine run-off election or an emergency national council, called a loya jirga, before winter. Once a legitimate president emerges, we need to see immediate action from him on a publicly announced reform program, developed in consultation with Afghan society and enforced by international monitors.
I endorse the diagnosis and I see no reason to reject the prescription. But the constituency for what Dave proposes is… where? There needs to be a genuine Afghan appetite for a constitutional deviation out of this crisis, otherwise the result will perpetuate the illegitimacy that the election exposed. (I say "exposed" and not "created" because the act of stealing an election is merely a symptom — albeit a dire one — of a broader disease consuming the thief.) The international community cannot force this solution on Afghanistan, and Galbraith’s experience calls into question whether it would support such a solution even if an Afghan constituency for it materialized.
I want to find a pony, too, but we may be left with Kilcullen’s conclusion:
If we see no genuine progress on such steps toward government responsibility, the United States should “Afghanize,” draw down troops and prepare to mitigate the inevitable humanitarian disaster that will come when the Kabul government falls to the Taliban — which, in the absence of reform, it eventually and deservedly will.
Galbraith and Kilcullen would make great drinking buddies.



13 Comments
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I think it’s very close to what you’re saying, but it should be noted that it’s very unlikely that an extra constitutional solution to the fraudulent election imposed by an occupying military force would have even the credibility that the Karzai government has now.
The Obama administration needs to accept that the only power they have to regulate the Afghanistan government comes from the security they provide the regime and the aid funds the regime skims. If you want to reduce the corruption of the Afghan government, the only realistic path is to put a clothespin on your nose and play a high stakes game of poker with the Karzai government. You will get them to modify their behavior if they understand that you will reduce your military and financial support, putting their power at risk. As long as they can say one thing and do another without real consequences, there is no hope that anything will change, and we will still be having this same conversation a year from now…
mikey
The UN Rocks Bush would have given this guy a Medal of Freedom and a heck of a job Petey!
More likely that BushCo would have fired him and trashed his name and reputation via their pet stenographers.
Book Salon up at the Mothership with Rana Husseini’s Murder In The Name Of Honor hosted by Joanne Payton
UN duplicity aside, I’m supprised at the lack of blogs dissecting Rory Stewarts discussion of Afghanistan on Bill Moyers Journal of 09.24.09. He’s had several meeting with on-high in State and the WH. He stated basically they wanted him to bless one of two losing policies and had no interest in changing the upcoming “Pacification” favored by JCoS or alternatively more troops. Galbraith didn’t agree with on-high, got no US backing, so he’s gone. I guess Obama during his college years, didn’t have a minor in history.
Totally agree. This is why I wrote that “unconditional relationship with Pakistan, conditional relationship with Afghanistan” post a couple weeks ago.
He did call this a “Pashtun civil war”. So, however much support the Tajiks have been giving to the US side (I don’t know that much detail of this war yet), I suppose there’s other possibilities between continued support and flipping over to the other side, like for example withholding support and holding aloof. May not be in their best interest, but politics is full of cutting off the nose to spite the face.
Maybe that’s what he meant.
I didn’t see the Charlie Rose interview — I kind of never watch Charlie Rose — but if it’s grappling-with-Stewart you want, I gotchoo covered.
Yeah, I took that discussion on. I was surprised too that more people hadn’t–Stewart isn’t strident in his beliefs, but he definitely sticks with them, and they’re worth discussing.
One of the crummiest things to come out of the international weight thrown behind Karzai’s presidency is watching Galbraith be dismissed for questioning legitimacy, when it clearly needed to be questioned. Not crummier than the support of Karzai’s presidency, of course, but bad collateral damage.
What do we expect when we allow fraudulent elections here in the United States. Our military would be expelled from the country without the puppet government in Afghanistan.
I am also somewhat surprised that Rory Stewart’s take on our war in Afghanistan hasn’t received significant attention. But given our MSM, I’m not too shocked.
Stewart said that when he speaks to multiple members of the current administration about Afghanistan, they listen politely but to him it’s as if they are saying – we are determined to drive off the cliff. Please advise if we should wear seatbelts.
And Stewart is concerned our current strong level of war effort in Afghanistan is going to lead to our total abandonment in a few years, which will be disastrous for the Afghan people. It would be similar to the way we abandoned the country after the Soviets left.
I’m really having trouble with this dispute, it’s very hard for me to understand Kai Eide trying to be so manipulative, or what motive the U.N. would have for being so, and it’s equally hard to understand why it is so difficult to denounce the election if it isn’t valid. By any given party involved. It makes sense to me only in the light of participating governments that have lied to their constituencies about how difficult or how dangerous some of this might be. I don’t think of Kai Eide as someone who would be duplicitous, but I’m also having trouble discounting Peter Galbraith.