Another thing about al-Qaeda "coming back" to Afghanistan, this time from a different direction. Yesterday I was at a talk given by the Pakistani foreign minister, and he said:
Qureshi declined to give an opinion on whether the U.S. ought to increase troops in neighboring Afghanistan, an option the Obama administration is currently debating. But he said that it would be “useful” for the U.S. and NATO to include Pakistan in its military deliberations, “so our effort is more coordinated, more focused.” Discussions with members of the Obama administration left Qureshi with the impression that a decision will come by “late October [or] early November.”
Now, what would drive al-Qaeda to seek a return to Afghanistan? Primarily, it seems safe to conclude, the loss or endangerment of the Pakistani safe haven. Sure, al-Qaeda could theoretically disperse, but the further it travels, and more rapidly, the greater the danger (for them) of interception. But now here’s this forthcoming plan from the Pakistani military to invade Waziristan, the safe haven of the safe haven, so to speak. It’s evidently geared to, among other things, taking away the safe haven.
I don’t have a clue whether the Pakistani campaign will succeed. But surely there’s merit in Qureshi’s suggestion, mindful of operational security. If the Pakistanis are successful, after all, they’ll start to cause al-Qaeda to disperse, and the U.S. needs to be ready.



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I have no data, but just thinking out loud in terms of strategic value, tactical efficacy and operational security, if I was al Quaeda G3 I’d be considering the tradeoffs between the safety of isolation and the flexibility of moving operations more forward.
If they were driven out of the AfPak region, they might see it as an opportunity to set up in areas closer to European networks, Gulf funds and perhaps even establish an operational relationship with Latin American drug cartels. They might still retain recruitment/training facilities in Somalia or Yemen, particularly for staging operations in Iraq and Aghanistan which provide immensely valuable combat experience.
When thinking about this question, it sure seems to me that the unintended consequence of success in AfPak is that, by forcing a more dispersed, decentralized operational approach, we might actually be breathing new life into a moribund movement.
That said, I’m pretty sure that anything the Pakistanis do in Waziristan will be primarily theater, carefully calibrated to keep everybody just unhappy enough…
mikey
The Pakistani military have already told local leaders of Afghan Taliban groups, like Mullah Nazeer, that their peace accords are safe. They’re only going into S. Waziristan after the TTP.
Regards, Steve