(If you don’t get the headline, I’m having some fun with a classic Small Wars Journal post. All will become clear in a moment.)
So you might have seen this New York Times piece about military frustration with the pace of the Obama decisionmaking process. I wrote pretty much a full-on rant about that here, but I think there’s more to be said, in a real-talk way. The basic point I made over at the Windy (and please click through!) was that the military circles that are venting this frustration — which is understandable — may not sufficiently appreciate that Afghanistan is an unpopular war. Forgive me for quoting myself, but: “If elements of the military community dislike the fact that it’s taking weeks for Obama to refine his Afghanistan strategy now, they’ll really dislike what will happen if he hastily orders a politically unsustainable escalation and the reins get pulled back by a dissatisfied Congress in a year or so.”
Now, for what it’s worth, the piece kind of writes its frame around its evidence, as the actual quotes (with the exception of motherfucking Mike O’Hanlon; how predictable) are all caveated and rather respectful of the opposing side in the debate. But since I’ve heard some of these frustrations myself, I want to hinge off this graf:
Senior military officers, the analyst said, “are smart guys, but they do not have the daily pulse of the American public in their face. They tend to interpret politicians who give voice to it as being weak, but none of this works if the public gives up on it.”
This is that classic where-you-stand-is-where-you-sit thing. But this phenomenon encapsulates very well the inertial force that a war possesses. Protracted wars fought by democracies ultimately last only until publics decide they ought to. I doubt that any military officer would disagree with that proposition, no matter his or her perspective on a given war. But I’ve heard people in the broader defense community dismiss, diminish or deride public opinion, and particularly poll figures, in a way that embraces the pat assumption that public opinion is something to be worked around, not grappled with. At a counterinsurgency conference sponsored by Marine Corps University recently, the author and Marine Vietnam veteran Bing West unfavorably compared Obama’s focus on health-care reform with his focus on Afghanistan. West might not have meant it this way, but 47 million Americans and approximately 30 million American citizens without health insurance is not something to diminish, whatever the requirements of a war. Indeed, it’s ultimately counterproductive for elements of the military community to ask for a commitment to Afghanistan that’s just plainly unsustainable, politically. And this seems to be something the defense community needs to grapple with further.
Second, I read the piece and just thought: think about how tense it might be between Obama and the military if Obama didn’t retain Bob Gates at the Pentagon. Very few defense secretaries have commanded the sheer respect that Gates possesses. That’s why he’s able to march into the Association of the U.S. Army conference and tell everyone — and the fact that it was coming from the SecDef to the Army was not lost on anyone — to keep their opinions out of the papers, and the reaction, as far as I can tell, hasn’t been, “What an arrogant asshole,” but, “Huh, Gates probably has a point here.” I’ve written extensively about Gates’ crucial swing-vote role in the Afghanistan debate, and I’ll have way more in a mammoth piece I filed last week that should be out in early November. (Seriously. Five thousand words.) Think about it: Gates ordered McChrystal to strip his resource recommendations from his strategy assessment; prevented McChrystal from testifying on the Hill until after Obama makes his strategy decision, lest he become a political football for the GOP; and has sent all these unsubtle signals that McChrystal will either have to make a very strong case for a troop increase or Gates will reject it. By any measurement I can think of, Obama simply would be in a much worse position viz. the institutional military if Gates wasn’t by his side — and, for that matter, would probably have made worse decisions. I kind of chuckle to myself every time I come upon a derisive mention of Gates in the progressive blogosphere. Guys: you’ll miss him when he’s gone.
Finally, Matthew Yglesias has typically smart insights into the barometric significance of why the “policy analyst” in NYT piece is granted anonymity.



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That seems pretty tone-deaf, especially coming from someone who is speaking at a counterinsurgency conference. In essence, folks like this are saying “winning the hearts and minds of the locals in Afghanistan is critical, but who gives a damn about the hearts and minds of the American people who are asked to support these efforts?”
Success in Afghanistan — however one measures it — will depend on having the people of both Afghanistan and the US behind the US and coalition forces. If either is not, things will not go well for anyone involved.
If the military can’t get their heads around the need for both of these, we’ve got a bigger problem at the DOD than I thought.
All the sparkly attention Jack Keane got in Bob Woodward’s last book has to make others think they can be around-the-chain-of-command heroes just like he was portrayed. Not a good thing for a democracy (ours).
so sorry, tbsa’s comment got eeted:
The United States is a democracy! Who would have thunk it?
The military need to understand they are no part of any solution, in Afghanistan, or elsewhere currently.
What’s needed is what we need at home. Infrastructure, schools, doctors, hospitals, libraries, clean water, sewage treatment, roads, and police (preferably unarmed).
Yeah. I don’t like to use the “C” word, but if retired generals like Keane continue to try to subvert the political order, that’s what we got.
When all you have is a hammer, all problems look like nails.
Bing West is an idiot.
Great analysis Spencer. I have been ambivalent about Gates. Your points are well taken and, yes, I can see if the Secty. O D was an idealog or blatant political appointment it would draw a line with the military and empower those who only think in terms of war.
Democracy is great. Let’s continue to try to keep it..
SecDef Gates is respected by the senior military officer because he fired former SecAF Wynne and Air Force Chief of Staff Mosley. They know he is not someone to play around with.
Something else to keep an eye on here: the strategy proposed by Lt Gen McChrystal for Afghanistan is a counter-insurgency strategy when the original problem (the attacks on Sept 11, 2001) required a counter-terrorism strategy.
Finally, Lt Gen McChrystal’s pending request for “more troops” raises the question “what kind?”. Put yourself in the position of the top personnel officers of each service. What specialities would you tap to fill the request? Artillery personnel? Weapons engineers? Sailors? Radio operators? Mechanics? Satellite controllers? Acquisitions specialists? None of these will help the situation much.
Lt Gen McChrystal’s report of August 30, 2009 lists “four main pillars” (page 1-3) that seem to require teachers, social workers, precinct workers and other election specialists, politicans, and a sales team. The Defense Department doesn’t have any of these. This is Peace Corps work. The Defense Department needs to get back on bin Laden’s trail and quit trying to build a western nation where one cannot be built. That may require firing a few more generals.
The most interesting thing about this is that it’s becoming a virtual rehash of what the military was saying back during the late 60s and early 70s. The “loss” of Vietnam was virtually blamed on Democrats because of Watergate (yes, it was)… having been on Active Duty from the mid 70s to Clinton the biggest thing that the military loved to do was blame Democrats for every conceivable ill. Reality was not an issue… if you were a Democrat, you were wrong.
Now with a virtual rerun of the unwinnable Asian war going on, well two unwinnable Asian wars, the military is feeling a bit stretched, and they are starting to feel the heat about “winning”, whatever the fuck that means.
During the Bush Years, the entire “strategy” question was left to the flag officers and a few selected unfortunate civilians post-Rummy for both wars. There was no guidance from the White House because frankly they had no clue what to do when “shock and awe” did not convert every Iraqi and Afghani citizen into a Jeffersonian Democrat who instantly professed love for George Bush and the State of Israel, the “kumbayaa Middle East” scenario.
The flag officers who are running both wars have grown used to getting whatever the fuck they want, in terms of money, weapons and time because when both wars started the mood in this country was that if anyone opposed that they were clearly not “patriots”. Unfortunately, the public has moved beyond that and those flag officers have not. They will soon start talking, as they did during the Vietnam War, about how their failed strategies are a result of the war being “run out of the White House”.
Other than a quick, painful withdrawal, there is no easy way to get this two-war mess behind us. People are starting to realize that the price of the Iraq War alone could have easily paid the bill for health care reform, and that’s becoming an issue (but for the longer term).
One of the most interesting things is the peripheral sideshow of the newest NeoCon squawkings about the “need” to do “something” about Iran. I wonder how long it will take before some of the more disaffected flag officers take retirement and join that camp? Not long, I’m thinking, because the distraction of yet another war will serve to distract us from the reality of all that has gone wrong before.
AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen Spencer Ackerman and the Firepup Freedom Fighters:
Thank you for this well thought and timely piece of thinkin’. All of us need to understand just how dangerous a spot we’re in in this country and how much of a threat we pose to the rest of the world as well as ourselves as a result of how much military we have had since the end of WWII and the how dangerously weak we are at the moment since the collapse of the “industrial” in the “military-industrial” complex.
If we remember that standing armies were a mortal sin to our founders and that even in the modern age it is impossible to maintain any large force for any length of time without using it abroad or on your own population, then we begin to see what a big tub of shit we’re in. No democracy or economy can survive with the amount of military we have had over the last 62 years. And the “privitization” of the military is, to my mind anyway, a sign that we have reached the terminal stage of our democracy. When corporate contractors are used to gather intelligence, assainate presidents, provide security in a domestic emergency in lieu of the state National Guard which is itself deployed on foreign soil in lieu of federal troops and carry out action orders directly from the Pentagon, well then folks we’re thoroughly and truly fucked. And that’s where we are at this moment…that’s a fact Jack!
And now I want to hear from all those who have been screamin’ that Obama is nuthin’ but a corporate shill and a war-monger like all the rest because he won’t committ suicide by walkin’ into the firing line mustered by his predecessor…come on let me hear you folks now!
KEEP THE FAITH AND PASS THE AMMUNITION OUR TROOPS ARE WAITIN FOR US TO END THIS THING!!
Thanks for this A-Man!
I don’t know if anybody else followed the story about China’s just-announced military troop strength reductions.
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE58T0RA20090930
They just announced that they’re reducing total manpower by 700,000 and refocusing military investment on naval and airforce projection capability (to better focus on protecting their far flung commercial interests and temporarily leaving them without the capability to fight a major land war or, for that matter, to invade and occupy anybody). Given that they presently have 2.2 to 2.3 million active duty military personnel, the announced reduction would make China’s the world’s second or perhaps third largest all-volunteer military.
The new number one? We’re # 1! We’re #1! We may not have healthcare, civilian jobs, a thriving economy or educated voters, but we will have the world’s largest military – 1.6 million personnel for our paltry 308 million citizens (as opposed to China’s future 1.5 to 1.6 million for their 1.3 billion citizens). Don’t you already feel that patriotism? USA! USA! ;-)
The neocons want their not so little war. No reason for it just they want it.
I can’t help thinking that Obama could have headed a lot of this off if he had put someone else other than Gates in as SecDef and if he had fired Petraeus and Odierno, and kept McKiernan and gone for a draw down in Afghanistan. But more than anything he needed to set the policy. Crap like this happens when policymakers punt on enunciating clearly and logically what the policy is. Something, something, al Qaida, sort of, kind of, hum a little here, is not a policy.
And let’s face it. Gates is not doing such a wonderful job of containment if all this whingeing is emanating from the Pentagon.
Someone needs to check Tom Ricks in this regard. I thought he was better than this BS.