U.S. oil companies have been frozen out of the first major round of bidding for exploratory oil-field development contracts in (non-Kurdish) Iraq:

Not a single U.S. company secured a deal in the auction of contracts that will shape the Iraqi oil industry for the next couple of decades. Two of the most lucrative of the multi-billion-dollar oil contracts went to two countries which bitterly opposed the U.S. invasion — Russia and China — while even Total Oil of France, which led the charge to deny international approval for the war at the U.N. Security Council in 2003, won a bigger stake than the Americans in the most recent auction. “[The distribution of oil contracts] certainly answers the theory that the war was for the benefit of big U.S. oil interests,” says Alex Munton, Middle East oil analyst for the energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, whose clients include major U.S. companies. “That has not been demonstrated by what has happened this week.”

I remember in the feverish late summer of 2002 a variety of think-tanky and media people speculated about what it would take to secure Russia’s vote for the invasion at the Security Council. One variety of conjecture: the U.S. would need to guarantee a contract between Saddam and Moscow to develop the huge West Qurna oil field. A neoconservative friend of mine then working with me at a magazine sniffed: That would be untoward! Yes, better to invade and occupy Iraq without the Security Council, “purity” of intentions protected, and then deny forever more that oil ever has anything to do with why we care about the Middle East, you conspiracy theorist.

Anyway. I’d add that whatever people’s “true” intentions about wanting to invade Iraq — my own understanding: it was about a demonstration of American power, however misguided and crude, leavened with some theological messianism about an unthought-out concept passing itself off as “freedom” in some corners — the fact that the U.S. oil companies didn’t get these contracts doesn’t prove the Iraq war wasn’t about oil. A perfectly commensurate explanation would be that the U.S. simply doesn’t have the power to guarantee the Iraqis hand over the contracts to American oil companies. I don’t think the war was about oil, but still. This has been your cheeky logic lesson of the snowy morning.