So let’s say that in the course of a year — a year that featured significant political turmoil and severe economic hardship — you push insurgents back from their advancing stronghold fairly near your capitol. It yields a really high human toll, including hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons. Then, a couple months later, you take your military to pressure those insurgents even further, going deep into their tribal stronghold in south Waziristan. That also requires a significant human toll, and you’re still trying to rally international support to help pay it off. But people in the west say, “Great! Now how about going into North Waziristan? When are you going to do that?” When you say, “Well, you know, we’ve sort of been doing a lot lately, if you haven’t noticed, so probably not in the next six to twelve months,” people in the U.S. freak out. Then they talk about dropping some more missiles into the area from remotely-piloted planes.
Look, I share everyone’s frustration with the Pakistani government. But look at it from their perspective. That’s not to say the argument stops. This is what diplomacy is for. But you’re not going to get anywhere diplomatically until you understand the other guy’s problems the way he sees them. It would be a really fruitful thing for the Obama administration to start involving itself in an India-Pakistan peace process, thereby catering to the stability of South Asia between two nuclear powers and alleviating some of Pakistan’s very legitimate security concerns. If part of the obstacle the Pakistanis have toward going into North Waziristan is exposure on their eastern border to their historic enemy, why not address that concern directly?



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Haven’t we been addressing those concerns?
Is this announced delay part of the negotiation?
(non-rhetorical questions)
Not to mention that, at some point, the Pakistani army needs to stop launching new offensives and worry about consolidating its gains in Swat and South Waziristan. Both created huge IDP problems and totally disrupted local communities; if the army leaves town and moves on to N. Waziristan without first providing sustainable security and some modicum of development, it’s going to piss off a lot of people.
Spencer,
Understanding the other side is key. But what you are saying is essentially to make India pay the price for America’s reluctance to tackle Pakistan’s nuclear blackmail.
The bottomline is this – there are terrorists in what is Pakistan’s sovereign territory and Pakistan is getting billions of dollars to supposedly clean up that area.
But all it does is superficial clean up work and it charges an extra ransom for every incremental effort it is asked to undertake.
It is not as if India has refused to talk to Pakistan. In 2008, India was close to sealing a deal with Pakistan largely based on the status quo borders.
However, Pakistan’s Generals want to use terror and nukes as a blackmail tactic to ask the US to coerce India to give up territory that Pakistanis couldn’t win with wars.
No dice.
How is that really what I’m saying?
You call for the US to “involve itself” in the India-Pakistan peace process as a payoff/bribe to Pakistan’s terror appeasing Generals.
Why would the Generals want the US to insert itself into the process if not to coerce India to give up something that the Pakistanis know they cannot get on their own?
Do you really believe that Generals Kayani and Pasha would be satisfied with a “good faith effort” that leaves Pakistan with the territorial status quo?
Pakistan’s game, since it went nuclear, is to keep inducing crises using terror groups and ask the world to intervene and get a deal from India that they cannot get otherwise. Look at Kargil, the parliament attack, Mumbai etc. The Pakistanis believe they have the escalation dominance in any crisis with India. They know that once the nuclear threat is wielded, the aggressor and the other side become equal in the world’s eyes.
If you encourage the blackmailer, you will induce more of the same type of behavior.
Were the US to do what you seek, Pakistan will initially give up some Taliban figure as payoff and immediately up the ante and pay truant again knowing that sooner or later some one will consider bribing them again.
Gee Spencer…Let’s also look at it from Osama bin Laden’s perspective. That’s not to say the argument stops. This is what diplomacy is for. But you’re not going to get anywhere diplomatically until you understand the other guy’s problems the way he sees them. It would be a really fruitful thing for the Obama administration to start involving itself in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Gulf countries etc…