Excerpts of Amb. Karl Eikenberry’s November cables warning about Hamid Karzai’s unreliability as an ally and cautioning against increasing U.S. forces in Afghanistan leaked to the Times and the Post. Today the Times runs them in full. You should read them. According to the paper’s Eric Schmitt, the leaker wants “the historical record” to include the full text of the cables.
If there’s anything new here, it’s that Eikenberry dismisses as “optimistic” an apparent set of internal military charts that show a “bell curve” in U.S. troops rising and then departing — presumably the deployment patterns for an Iraq-like surge — and that Hamid Karzai’s coterie “do not want the U.S. to leave and are only too happy to see us invest further. They assume we covet their territory for a never-ending ‘war on terror’…” Eikenberry believes increasing U.S. forces in Afghanistan will only mire the country deeper in the war and act as a disincentive for Karzai to get his shit together. You can see why a civic-minded leaker wants the record to reflect that. I think I read similar cables in some book written by David Halberstam.
But the Vietnam comparisons, I think, end there, because the Obama administration did something that the Kennedy and Johnson administrations didn’t: they absorbed the critique. Look at the December speech at West Point and the McChrystal-Eikenberry hearings that followed. Eikenberry worries about being waist-deep in the big muddy and pressing on? Obama says that a transition to Afghan security responsibility — yes, an open-ended one, but a transition — begins in July 2011. Eikenberry worries that Karzai and his inner circle will treat an open-ended U.S. commitment as an excuse for intransigence? Obama says that the bulk of U.S. development and governmental support will occur outside of Kabul and focus on immediate-impact areas like agriculture and local governance. Eikenberry says that the civilian structure of the U.S. and NATO commitment to Afghanistan is disorganized in a way that leads to the inevitable militarization of policy? Obama and NATO will redress that grievance in exactly the manner Eikenberry proposed on Thursday in London. Eikenberry told Congress in December, after the West Point speech, that he supports Obama’s revised Afghanistan strategy “without equivocation.” It’s not hard to see why.
This is a season of really understandable progressive discontent with Obama on domestic issues. I’m going to stay in my lane here, but suffice it to say I share a lot of that discontent. Yet it’s moments like this when the administration really does come through. Obama, confronting a massive and complex challenge that he inherited, absorbed a dissenting position and did so in a manner that kept the counterinsurgents on board; embraced the military critique they offered; and devised a creative strategy tailored to American interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan and just those interests. This is not a middle path. It’s a synthesis. The distinction is important. Not many U.S. policymakers appreciate it, and fewer still achieve it.



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You said Obama “absorbed a dissenting position,” but I’m not sure about that. What’s the difference between that and “let it go in one ear and out the other”?
Eikenberry’s very first bullet point is worth repeating here:
You write about Obama addressing some of Eikenberry’s critiques, but you miss the very first one he offered: is Karzai a credible strategic partner (or can he become one)? Counterinsurgency requires strong local indigenous leadership that can serve as partners, and Eikenberry says Karzai is not up to that and neither is anyone else in Afghanistan — even if we could wave a magic wand and remove corruption from the equation.
I haven’t watched this as closely as you, Spencer, but I see nothing that Obama or McChrystal has either said or done to refute this charge from Eikenberry. It’s been my concern all along, and seeing these cables reinforces my concern tremendously.
If the US reduces its support to Afghanistan to support for Karzai (what Bush did, no exaggeration) then yes, the critique applies. But everything Obama has done on this front goes toward mitigating the effects of having Karzai in power. The increases in support to Afghanistan development go either to local government or ministries that impact far outside of Kabul (most importantly, the Ministries of Agriculture and Rural & Regional Development) or to the security sector. They’re pushing money outside of Kabul. Counterinsurgency requires strong local indigenous leadership, yes — and that’s why the Obama team is emphasizing “local” and “indigeneous.” The term you always hear is “sub-national.”
Can you ignore Karzai? No, not while he’s president of Afghanistan. But what you can do is broaden your support for Afghans far beyond Karzai. And that’s what Obama did — to some extent before the cables and to a great extent after them. I covered every second of those December hearings with McChrystal, Eikenberry, Petraeus and Lew. The overwhelming focus on civilian strategy boiled down to programs that effectively circumvent Karzai. These are Good Things.
But Eikenberry says this goes well beyond just Karzai.
What “Afghans far beyond Karzai” does Obama (or McChrystal or Petraeus or you) see as credible partners, that Eikenberry doesn’t? Are the Ministries of Agriculture and Rural & Regional Development “far” from Karzai? As I read the cables, Eikenberry includes them in his critique.
Beyond just pointing them out, what’s the evidence to say Eikenberry is wrong in viewing them as unreliable and lacking in political will? Have these ministries actually done what was asked of them, and had an impact?
It’s fine to be a small military outpost out in the hinterlands and have good relations with the local Afghan leader. But where are the folks who (to use Eikenberry’s words) can “transcend local affiliations”?
I’m not sure I buy the synthesis bit. As I pointed out in my diary this morning, Eikenberry points out in one of the cables that he had requested $2.5 billion to start the training of Afghan personnel who could take over government functions when the US pulls out. That request was denied. I don’t see how giving McChrystal a partner overcomes that unless it comes with the budget Eikenberry requested (after an adjustment to make up for the time lost after the first refusal to fund training).
I think that you all seriously overestimate the reach of the nation state in Afghanistan. Even if Karzi agreed with Elkenberry, there is not much he can do about it.
Not sure who’s more deluded here, Elkenberry expecting the head of an essentially nonexistent nation state to adopt a posture inconsistent with his actual capabilities given the capacity of the Afghan state or folks who think that Elkenberry is right and that Karzai should willfully suspend disbelief.
Efforts to impose a nation state through creation of infrastructure, such as road building will only further antagonize those who just wish to be left alone.
Half of me wants to see the the US double down, so that the US empire will be brought to its knees in Afghanistan, the graveyard of empires, making life worse for us but better for the world at large, and half of me wants the US to get out now to stop the killing.
The Afghan government is corrupt and riddled with warlords and opium growers. It practices torture with impunity. Today, they brought back warlord and accused mass murderer and war criminal Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum to be Chief of Staff to the head of the Afghan army.
Eikenberry discovered that one must toe the line, that’s all.
An “open ended” July 2011 transition to Afghan security forces… this is what you are building your support of Obama/McChrystal’s policy upon?
The “Afghan government” “runs” the land mass inside the borders that designate Afghanistan the same way that a candle lights up the outdoors on a windy night.
Spencer, your link to “exactly as Eikenberry proposed” Thursday in London now points to a subsequent article it seems. The desired target of the link is at the “Next” button, I think.