Emotionally speaking, I cheer the Green Movement and will pop a bottle the day the Islamic Republic of Iran gets dragged through the streets of Teheran and then hung from the lampposts. But this is not a good argument from Shadi Hamid:

Almost definitional, a democratic Iran, by virtue of its democratic nature, would likely have a less destabilizing foreign policy, even allowing for the likelihood it would still pursue the bomb and perhaps support Hamas and Hezbollah.

After all, our problem with Iran is not just that it’s pursuing a nuclear program but that it’s pursuing a nuclear program combined with the fact that it’s a theocracy and/or military dictatorship. We can say there is an interesting interaction effect between these two variables. The authoritarian nature is likely amplified by the active pursuit of nuclear weapons, while the potentially destructive effects of Iran having nuclear weapons is amplified by the authoritarian nature of its regime.

Sure. But what about institutional gridlock or early-democratic political failure? So much depends on the circumstances under which the Greens succeed (presuming of course it will). It’s fairly easy to imagine that the Greens will have their work cut out for them consolidating support from the military, particularly if the rise of the Greens threatens to displace the officer corps’ status in a future Iran. Conditions of foreign emergency are really good for that, as Khomeini demonstrated from the Iran-Iraq war. While I hope that the international community wouldn’t greet any ascendant-Green scenario with the stupidity of a Saddam Hussein, history is often a story of blunder and miscalculation, so who knows. And sometimes militaries in nuclear-armed countries with weak or untested democracies are assertive, adventurous in foreign affairs and unresponsive to civilian concerns. Like for instance.

I want the Greens to win. I want the Islamic Republic to lose. But I’m not going to fool myself into thinking that if and when that happy day arrives, a host of foreign-policy dilemmas automatically unlocks, or even gets set on a glide path to unlocking. Not everything good is good together, or all at once, so let’s stop treating democracy like a children’s fable or magical incantation.