Question has come up, so for what it’s worth: I want some greater degree of certainty over the facts before I say anything, and Tony Shadid tells us that preliminary data can arrive as early as tomorrow. Yes, this degree of uncertainty did not bother me so much in 2005 and 2009. But this time I have a worse handle on the actual state of play of the coalitions. If it makes you feel better, I am wracked with guilt about this and have an unhealthy impulse to book myself a ticket to Baghdad. May I suggest in the meantime that you check out Gregg Carlstrom and Michael Hanna and Marc Lynch?