Paul McLeary attended a talk given by Lt. Gen. Michael Oates, commander of the military’s counter-IED organization. But it appears from Paul’s coverage that Oates spent his talk discussing IED threats on the battlefields overseas. And that’s important. But we’ve just experienced an exportation of that threat in a major American city. It failed, thankfully, but Oates is in a situation to see clearly that extremist organizations are learning organizations. The next IED attempt here probably won’t be so idiotically inept.
Introducing Oates’ talk was Marine Gen. James “Mad Dog” Mattis, who colorfully observed, “IEDs are coming to a city near you.” Bet on that.



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I actually wouldn’t necessarily bet on it. The IEDs that have plagued the Iraqi occupation aren’t made with fertilizer — they are made with bits of the tons of C4 that were stolen from Iraqi military stores during the post-invasion loot-a-thon, and artillery shells and grenades and what not, all of which are as common in Iraq as ants.
Fertilizer bombs are bulky, good for car bombs but not for trash cans or roadsides or mass transit attacks. And it’s actually not that easy to get bulk NH4NO3 in the U.S. any more, at least not without drawing attention to yourself. It would take a certain amount of sophistication — more than Timothy McVeigh needed — to pull off a significant bomb attack.
And, since al Qaeda and the Taliban seem to have had nobody above doofus grade to send on missions to the U.S. for a while now, it’s not clear to me that they can find somebody who has what it takes. I’m keeping my wallet in my pocket.