So this Petraeus/Flournoy hearing so far has been dominated by a very politicized parsing of what the July 2011 “inflection point” is and isn’t. You can read about that here. We’re at a 10 minute break two hours in — there’s a Senate vote — and I haven’t heard anything substantial about Kandahar.

But another thing. I may have overstated the case (at least in my headline) yesterday about the momentum for reconciliation in Afghanistan. Notwithstanding the months’ worth of U.S. rhetorical expressions of support for the process, Petraeus and Flournoy both expressed greater confidence about low-and-mid-level insurgent reintegration occurring before high-level Taliban talks produce any results. “It’s not something I would charcterize as reconciliation coming soon to a theater near us,” Petraeus said, which is hardly surprising. After all, the Karzai government is setting up a peace council to operationalize its peace offers, but given that the shura just took place earlier this month and, as Caroline Wadhams recently observed, the offer doesn’t speak to insurgent political grievances, what’s to expect.

On the question of Gilles Dorronsoro’s proposed direct U.S.-Taliban talks, I’ve heard no evident desire so far. Flournoy said it was appropriate for the Karzai government to be in the lead on talks with the Taliban and for the U.S. and NATO to be “joined at the hip” to ensure a coordinated message and prospective commitment. Finally, on that question, here’s a section from a new paper from Anthony Cordesman:

The key reasons for the war remain Al Qa’ida and the threat of a sanctuary and base for international terrorism, and the fact the conflict now involves Pakistan’s future stability. One should have no illusion about today’s insurgents. The leading cadres are far more international in character, far better linked to Al Qa’ida and other international extremist groups, and much closer tied to extremists in Pakistan. If they “join” an Afghan government while they are still winning (or feel they are winning), they are likely to become such a sanctuary and a symbol of victory that will empower similar extremists all over the world.

OK this thing is starting back up. More later.