Turkey is threatening to cut off ties to Israel over the flotilla raid. (Apparently back-channel talks aimed at repairing the breach in the Israel-Turkey relationship didn’t get very far.) But through Marc Lynch’s twitter feed, we learn:
Bashar al-Asad: Turkey cutting ties with Israel would harm stability, peace in the region
Marc’s source for that is an Arabic news piece that I can’t read, but I take his word for it. And indeed, Assad’s calculation is right: no good can come from Turkey breaking with Israel. Both Israel and its Arab neighbors need an intercessor for communicating with each other in order to prevent destabilizing surprises from occurring and to test each other’s commitment to constructive dialogue. To state the obvious, Turkey has acted as a “facilitator” for Syria and Israel to explore peace talks. Moribund as those talks are right now, it’s far better to have the channel for restarting them open than it is for them to close.
If the Turkish government is trying to step on Prime Minister Netanyahu’s toes as Netanyahu arrives in Washington to meet with President Obama, expect the acrimony to persist. My old neighbor Janine Zacharia, a beast of a reporter, collects this LOLworthy sardonic quote from an anonymous Western diplomat:
“The president is very concerned about the breakdown in Turkish-Israeli relations,” the diplomat said. Asked if he thought Obama could persuade Netanyahu to apologize, the diplomat added: “I’m sure he’ll give it the college try.”
Chuckles aside, Assad is right about this.



14 Comments
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Well yeah but the current Israeli government, and, alas, most of the Israeli public, has no interest in making peace. What they want is the West Bank. And they are taking it, bit by bit. With U.S. taxpayers’ money.
While resisted by folks like yourself and Dr Larison it is in fact players in the Turkish government creating confrontation and provocation that are intended to weaken Israel and its relationship with the US.
Regardless whether this is playing to the crowd or part of some greater plan Turkey is not going to be a constructive player.
That is the real message one should derive from Syria’s announcement, empty words intended to make them seem reasonable. Empty words too quickly believed by credulous Westerners.
I’m not so sure I agree with this. If you accept the premise that since the Lebanon War debacle the Israeli leadership has been increasingly unwilling to act within an acceptable set of international norms, and further accept that this is putting Israel increasingly at risk in terms of international support and trade, then you have to arrive at the conclusion that the incentives are all aligned in the wrong direction. As long as Netanyahu and Lieberman continue to take more and larger ill-considered and impossible to justify military and diplomatic actions and receive no consequences beyond some brief international opprobrium, then there is no incentive for them to step back from the most radical of positions and begin to compromise.
In terms of real international consequences that would have meaning not only to the Likud leadership but also to the Knesset and the Israeli population without placing Israeli security in jeopardy, perhaps the loss of diplomatic relations with Turkey (or Egypt, for that matter – once Hosni Mubarak is gone, this becomes a more realistic possibility) might be the sweet spot. Right now Netanyahu is like a drunken driver speeding toward a cliff – until he gets pulled over and at least sees the POSSIBILITY of an arrest, he’ll just keep pushing harder on the gas pedal. And while his recklessness certainly puts many innocent lives at risk, it is his own nation that will suffer the tragic (and utterly unnecessary) consequences of the world’s unwillingness to try to reign him in.
mikey
Israel does far more to weaken the relationship with the US than Turkey ever could.
To my knowledge the only military action the current Israeli Palestinian government has taken was the raid on flotilla, which in turn was a deliberate provocation by players in the Turkish government. There has been no escalation of any other activity – even the settlement activity was briefly slowed.
Israel’s incursion into Lebanon was provoked by Hezbollah and that was not done by the current government. Israel’s incursion into Gaza was provoked by Hamas, also not done by the current government.
The Gaza blockade was excessively comprehensive, and unjustly broad in impact. But that is hardly justification for Turkey’s deliberate provocations. And Turkey permitting itself to be used as “bad cop” so that Syria, patrons of proxies, can appear “reasonable” is deft politics and public relations but it is tragic to confuse nice words with their actions behind the scenes.
Israel’s expansion into seized land and the Gaza blockade are intended to force common Gazans to compare their plight (self-inflicted but done so through a democratic process followed by a bloody civil war) to that of the West Bank. The West Bank is very close to citizenship and their economy noticeably improves each quarter. Hamas is a criminal mafia oppressing its own people, bulldozing the homes of Arab Palestinians and shutting down internal NGOs that employ women and young adults.
Israel’s approach can be summed up as, “the longer Arab Palestinians refuse to embrace diplomacy the less likely they will ever have autonomy”. It’s heavy handed, has yet to bring results, and is true solely because Hamas and Hezbollah are in queer collaboration with Israel’s internal extremists.
I criticize writers like Mr. Ackerman because there is a sole focus on Israel, and complete non-treatment of Hamas and Hezbollah and their role for regional proxy. Until the great powers put pressure on the proxies and their patrons the problem continues.
That is not under Netanyahu’s control, and yes it plays nicely into his belief that there is no possible peace with autonomous Arab Palestine. Given the actions of the proxies and their patrons it is a terrible but concrete belief for him to have.
When has the world ever held the proxies and their patrons to any higher standard that muted protests posted on websites… no wonder the Israeli Palestinians have given up on the world.
The US is living with the legacy decades of us propping up every dictatorship in the region at one time or another. Flag waving for the US to continue doing so (this season it is Syria) simply inflames the citizens another generation.
Much is made of our help to Israel. But we’re propping up far worse players in countries such as Saudi Arabia.
If the US waved a magic wand today and turned Israel into a purely Arab country our problems over there would continue tomorrow onward.
you don’t know what you’re talking about. at all.
see comment #7.
I’m not really interested in getting into a comment war with someone straining to read anti-Israel bias in what I write, but the post you’re actually criticizing is about the positive-sum utility of Turkey not cutting off ties with Israel. That wouldn’t be an Israeli decision. It would a Turkish decision — and as I very clearly say in the post, a shortsighted and counterproductive one. I suppose it helps your argument to ignore what I actually wrote, but it’s also a juvenile way to think and argue.
I’ve never once accused or implied you have an anti-Israel bias in what you write.
I do say what you write never seems to get around to analyzing Hamas / Hezbollah or their proxies, or even intimating that their role is far more corrosive than anything Israel has or should do. OTOH you are quite free to hold Israel accountable in most every situation. You and many others of the shtetl.
Those are very different things.
Yes I agree you note Turkey’s actions as unhelpful. But your headline and final one-liner suggest you think Syria is sincere. They are not. And your language in this and other posts suggest you believe Turkey provocations are justified. Which again they are not. Turkey is joining the list of Islamic nations that seize on every excuse to shift focus onto Israel.
I think you’re giving them a pass. I don’t think it means you are anti-Israel. But I do think think it is intellectually lazy, is unsupported by the region’s history, and winds up advocating a line of thought that benefits the dictators and ignores Turkey’s slow slide away from secular democracy into mischief maker.
Your “juvenile” crack is misdirected, and assumes a strawman you constructed. I’d like to see you apply your critical thinking and problem-solving skills beyond just the US/Gitmo. And as long as you continue to permit comments on your article I’m happy to chip in when I see you yet again assume the best of the provocateurs and the worst of the democracies.
I can snark too. I’m pretty damn good at it. But for now I’d prefer to keep it at a higher level.
I think you’re emphasizing the wrong thing. This isn’t a matter of Turkey cutting ties. The Turks didn’t suddenly decided that they didn’t want to be friendly anymore. This alliance is ending because of the Gaza War, because of the petty pranks Ayalon played on the Turkish Ambassador and because of the flotilla raid.
Turkey is the aggrieved party. The ball is in Israel’s court. If they:
1) Apologize
2) Allow a real inquiry into what happened (none of this internal bollocks with an international observer who’s from some “Friends of Israel” lobbying group)
3) Take appropriate action following the report and compensate any victims
Then you’ve got an alliance again. If the Israeli government can’t or won’t do those three things then tough luck, no more Turkish facilitator for them. You reap what you fucking sow.
Yes, one reaps what one fucking sow.s Except Turkey has no skin in the game when it comes to Gaza, and the flotilla raid was a deliberate provocation by players on the Turkish government.
http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Government/Speeches+by+Israeli+leaders/2009/Address_PM_Netanyahu_Bar-Ilan_University_14-Jun-2009.htm
Really, Turkey has no skin in Gaza? Never mind that Cast Lead was all sent on Al Jazeera for all turkish citizens to see, causing a major turnaround in the countries perception of Israel. But what really pissed Erdogan off was that he did not recieve any prior warning, and that he had been in contact with the Israelis just a few days before. In short, they lied to his face and insulted his honor (and so Turkeys) openly. This they did again with the ambassador, and again when they fcking decorated the commandos that raided the flotilla and named the killed ones for “terrorists”. Israel has gone out of its way to insult Turkeys honor. Feel free to say “they deserve it”, thats another matter. But Israel well and truly started this by not informing Erdogan about Cast Lead.
You are talking about the same Erdogan who conducts summits with Syria, the patron of Hezbollah and the proxy who provoked Israel repeatedly. Here is a sample from 2004, nearly two years before Israel lashed back at Hezbollah:
Also the same Erdogan who is pumping money into Hamas ports in Gaza.
I suggest Israel can be forgiven for not trusting Erdogan and his cronies that he is planting all throughout Turkey’s military and civilian institutions. If you don’t, what other Israeli Palestinian national security issues do you think Israel must inform Turkey in advance?
Is this multilateral? Is it reasonable to expect Turkey will tell Israel of Hezbollah movements in Southern Lebanon? How many tonnes of pure civilian versus military material Hamas shipped in through the ports Turkey is financing?