Look past the spin in this anonyquote to the WaPo on Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban:
“The key thing to bear in mind is that the administration is not naive about Pakistan,” an Obama administration official said. “The problem with the Pakistanis is that the more you threaten them, the more they become entrenched and don’t see a path forward with you.”
Frustrating, to be sure, but borne out of a lot of experience over two administrations (to speak just about the current context). Pakistan isn’t a monolith, either: there are competing centers of authority, with competing interests, competing resources, and, often, miscalculations. The Pakistanis have also shown great fortitude in combatting the TTP over the past 18 months. There’s no alternative to dealing with them, even if there’s no emotional satisfaction in doing so.
Update, 5:44 p.m.: Josh Mull comments & tweets at me to clarify who I’m talking about dealing with, which is another perfectly fair point for a post that talks about not treating Pakistan as a monolith. I’d say the civilian government; the Pakistani military leadership; and, indeed, the ISI. That’s not to say that we should dump cash on their laps without attaching any strings. But it is to say that we’d probably have less leverage or ability to influence the behavior of various Pakistani actors if we severed ties. There’s a great deal of gradation in between those two choices, and so it’s a matter of balance. It wouldn’t be a bad thing for the aid in the Kerry-Lugar-Berman bill, for instance, to remain focused on civilian governance and economic development; and I recall Ryan Crocker arguing that one of the best tools available for changing the Pakistani perception of the U.S. is to lower textile tariffs to Pakistani imports. So maybe those are some fruitful avenues to explore.



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The problem with Pakistan is that it is a government of killers and thugs who use terrorism to play the neo-cons for a billion dollars a year or more.
The problem with the US government is that is it a neo-con government of killers and thugs. Our neo-con warlords have committed treason by concealing the true sponsors of AQ and the Taliban.
South Asia’s not my region of interest, but haven’t we known since, well, the ’80s that Gul was hand-in-glove with the hardest core of the mujahideen? And for over a decade that he was affirmatively protecting bin Laden? I don’t think we needed WikiLeaks to tell us that there are enemies to our interests within and without the ISI.
In other news, I see that GSPC successor AQ/Maghreb killed a French aid worker as revenge against a failed Mauritanian cross-border raid in northern Mali. Sounds like ‘Abd al-Malik Droukdel is playing for the news cycle again.
I’m not convinced that AQIM is much more than smugglers and thugs — basically an ideological gloss on the previously-extant Tuareg smuggling clans that operate in the sahel — but I have pleasant memories of my brief time in Mali, and I’m saddened that the old Tuareg vs. Keita+ cycle of violence may be heating up again.
The selective understanding on display here is stunning.
We KNOW that threatening Pakistan with reduced aid or commitment is counterproductive, apparently.
We KNOW that threatening Israel with even the tiniest, symbolic reduction in aid or commitment is counterproductive, apparently.
Why do we then think that repeatedly threatening Iran with attack will somehow cause them to agree to cease work on a strategic deterrent?
It almost seems as if our interpretation of the effectiveness of various forms of international diplomatic coercion is subject to evaluation based on a purely political criterion….
mikey
Assange says leaked docs are just scratching the surface … much more to come …
The release of the files brings Pakistan’s duplicity out into the open. Again you miss the forest for the trees. Pakistan has no interest in our being successful in Afghanistan. In regional terms, they see Afghanistan as a client and do not favor a strong government there. They also fear and oppose growing Indian influence. In terms of the US-Pakistan relationship, the war is the only thing they have to offer. If it stops, then so will most of the aid. Worse, the US will focus far more on India which has a lot more to offer than an unstable ally. So the Pakistanis have an interest in keeping the war going and they are.
Right on target, Hugh. Summed up nicely. Will only say that this part of the world has always been difficult and extremely costly for imperial powers to manage. US citizens were sold a bill goods that didn’t include the price tag. And sadly most citizens are completely clueless about the politics and history of this region. When Bush proposed sending special ops to Afghanistan to purportedly “go after” Osama bin Laden, all I saw were monumental dollar signs… cha-ching, cha-ching, cha-ching.
Pakhistan has absolutely no motivation to do anything other than what it’s doing. Pakhistani War Lords/neo-con politicians get billions in “aid” from US taxpayers, and the NYT last Monday had a big old article about how none of them pay one dime in taxes.
Shameful, disgusting and so: on it goes….
The Afghan government is corrupt.
The Pakistani government is corrupt.
The U.S. government is corrupt, under GWB and BHO.
BHO keeps the killing going, is well aware of the many civilians being killed and simply does not care, because he has to look “tough” if he wants to stay in power. It’s all about power and ego gratification.
ho, boy. an inch wide and an inch deep.
[Mod Note: Don't get into an escalating rhetorical war]
“If it stops, then so will most of the aid”
The same also goes for the US. The executive branch has a vested interest in keeping the wars going in order to retain power. If Obama actually wanted to end what was going on, he wouldn’t have proposed Gitmo 2.0 at the Thomson Indefinite Dention Center.
Dude, the Pakistani people are some of the most generous and happy people on the planet. If you doubt this, you need to read “Three Cups of Tea”.
You referring to your mind, your manhood, your intellect or your understanding?
Who is them? Kayani/Army? ISI? PPP government? As you say, it’s not monolithic.
is that to which I refer, Sy.
Members of this administration have addressed it with Pakistani officials several times, according to reports I’ve read in the Pakistani press.
Now be a good Synoia and don’t call names.
Mac, I noticed you became angry at me the other day. And then one of your responses to me got modded. I do not want to give you a stroke. But I hope I raised your blood pressure somewhat. These wars are violations of international law. The neo-cons think Law does not apply to them. Defect from the Establishment. They are an epic failure in every way.
Hugh’s comment is totally on target. India has a 1.5 billion people. Pakistan is another epic failure terrorist state, run by their secret police. In fact the US government is getting to be similar to Pakistan’s.
I don’t recall that Frank. where was it?
You are, once again, correct. The fact that this and the previous, administration(s) have been willing to go along with this foolishness is astounding….what do they think that the status quo will remain for ever? Someone has to “blink” and it may as well be the US as the Pakastani gumnt has, as you say, no interest in stopping the kabuki.
The US was really bent out of shape when Benazir Bhutto was elected, the CIA was immediately tasked with zapping her which they did post haste. This country loves the vile and vicious dictatorships and seems not to care a whit about the lives that are terminated by their actions. Gotta love Amerika.
The US war machine has a vested interest in keeping the war going as well.
It’s in a strategic partnership with Pakistan, who apparently (!) fund the Taliban, who kill our cannon fodder.
yeah, of course they did. contracted it out to the Insane Clown Posse.
Wow, you really think we’re responsible for the assassination of Bhutto? Do you have anything to support this theory?
The Alberto Gonzales defense.
Me: Why does the million deaths in the Iraq oil wars not bother you?
Mac: [edited by mod.]
Fair point my ass. I’m sick and tired of OUR taxdollars being used to prop up monsters, dictators, murderers and thugs. The Pakistanis are all of the above. They are either a civilized nation that will partake of the benefits of civilization (tech, trade, education) or they are in the Dark Ages. They cannot play both.
The f*cks in the Paki government either pinch off ALL fellatio with the Taliban and AQ or they lose ALL economic aid and…they get to start watching their ISI assholes become prime drone targets. Enough is enough. This kind of rationalization is what helped lead US (with OUR tax dollars) supporting death squads, torturers, and just sundry dictators in Latin America and Africa for WAY too long. Cut the shit now.
The Pakistani government plays ball or we go whole-hog behind/with India as well. Let’s see how they like that.
oh, when you asked that obnoxious, erroneous and utterly stupid leading question.
yeah, that was a bunch of annoying. sorry that I didn’t remember.
It wasn’t so much that I was angry with you as I was annoyed at having another person join in doing it.
glad to see that you’ve deciding to ask some more.
[Mod Note: Chill. Now.]
There’s no alternative to dealing with them, even if there’s no emotional satisfaction in doing so.
I have one!
Spend all the billions that will go to this war on finding an alternative to oil, tell Pakistan and all the petro-dictators to fack themselves?
I read that book and thought it was wonderful. The people, the citizens’ ideals and beliefs are not always reflected in the actions of their government, though. I know, that’s a no duh moment, isn’t it?
Oh, I think it’s fair to also say that the more you GIVE them (millions amd millions; new war toys, etc…) the more entrenched they become and the more they don’t see a path forward with you.
Steve Coll’s excellent book, “Ghost Wars”, is required reading for anyone who wants to understand our relationship with Pakistan. Pakistan empowered the Taliban. They couldn’t have beaten Masoud and the rest of warlords in what became the Northern Alliance, without Pakistan’s help.
It’s insane to think that we’re going to be able to threaten OR bribe them into doing what we want them to do. It’s just one more crazed pre-supposition that anyone who wants to sustain the lunacy for another month, is pimping.
There is no “right way” to win in Afghanistan. And the bloggers parsing it from, ostensibly, the progressive side to try to cover Obama’s ass, are every bit as dishonest and full of shit, as were the people doing in on Bush’s behalf.
BTW, Nomolos: I don’t know if the CIA had a hand in Bhutto’s murder or not, but given the CIA’s track record, bringing it up sure as hell doesn’t qualify you for the kind of ridicule that Macaquerman handed you.
Pakistan is a snake’s nest of competing factions; the kind of situation which a CIA Station Chief takes one look at and gets a hard-on that a cat couldn’t scratch. Assuming that they had no inkling of an attack on her, is probably more inaccurate and foolish than assuming they did.
Apologize for the slight diversion, but the “TTP” acronym stands for?
Holding forth, again, are you, macaquer?
About how many people here are annoying you these days?
I rather imagine that my questions have begun to “wrankle”?
Just wondering, mocker.
You wrangler, you …
DW
Must be this?
not at all, DW. I’m rather fond of your questions and of your intentions.
The Pakistanis figure that when we leave Afghanistan we will lose interest in them as well because they saw this happen before after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989. And as I said before, compare Pakistan to India. It is obvious, outside the Afghanistan conflict, with which country our interests lie.
Great Idea!! Just one problem which presents. The oil whores, just like the tobacco whores rely on “addiction” and buying politicians to enable consumer driven addictions. We spend Billions of $$ a month in Afghanistan for what? Billions invested in energy development would liberate America from the modern day corporate slave-owners and ISI Pakistani murderers who work against USA, while corporation in war still profit!!
This is fucking bullshit 101 and treason!!!!!!!!!!
Look at the list of nations at this link:
Shanghai Cooperation Organization
That is where the future of Afghanistan will be decided regardless of what we do.
The question is how fast can the situation move there. Pakistan doesn’t need US money anymore; it is now uncertain. They can get it from China.
The emerging fact is that in this area and most likely in the Middle East as well, the US is becoming irrelevant. And having a bloated paper tiger military won’t change that fact.
Well, that is a relief, and I suppose that gives me some license to ask what it is that you think, imagine or believe that you accomplish, here?
You know that I appreciate your keen humor, however, your insistence that everyone, save yourself, be unambiguous in their assertions and impeccable in their sourcing has begun to seem more a tactic to disparage rather than a present willingness to consider anything except what YOU have already determined to be so.
You told me last evening, for instance, when I asked you to consider how you might feel as a person in Iran, when confronted with the threats of two certain nations (whose identity you well know) you told me you would seek to drive out the religious extremists.
Perhaps you missed my follow-up-question?
What “changes” would you seek were you a person living in the other two countries? (Realizing that we DO live in one of them.)
Have you any thoughts regarding these questions, three?
DW
Telling “truth” in America is now a crime?
Not sure if it’s a crime, but it has always been in poor taste.
One would think that “threatening” a colleague, peer or ally would be counter-productive generally, not just in persuading Pakistan that what we want is really, truly, absolutely what’s best for them, too.
“Treason” is, indeed, the proper word, James Joyce.
But it frightens too many, for it is impolite and not respectful enough for those, which includes those who have been “bought”, indeed, most especially those who have been “bought”, those who have trashed the Constitution and the rule of law … and all who profit from war … from organized mayhem and hide the truth from the people in whose name the madness is done.
Treason, James, it certainly is.
DW
One of the more absurd DK Posters was accused of being an AI experiment. Perhaps Mac is just an extremely brilliant Artificial Intelligence Program on a National Security Agency Computer
Hey Spencer, the right wing Augusta (GA) Chronicle editorial staff took a shot at you today. Perhaps you care to respond.
http://chronicle.augusta.com/opinion/editorials/2010-07-26/smoking-gun-bias?page=2#comment-834332
The editorial is titled “The smoking gun of bias: JournoList e-mails form despicable, anti-conservative paper trail”
Please visit Google and paste this in. There are way too many sources to cite Bhutto assasination + CIA
Truths like:
People are not property?
America is a corporate instilled drug addict?
American’s waste .75 cents of every dollar spent on gas?
Corporate servitude under fear of tax penalty is unconstitutional?
The economic effects of The Great Flood of 1927 were repeated during Katrina?
Man made Corporate due process rights obliterate “INDIVIDUAL NATURAL RIGHTS?”
Truth, just like love “hurts,” sometimes?
Corporations rig games?
I stopped looking after the first page of links. I was hoping for some documents or a whistle-blower. Those all seem to be conspiracy theorist websites/blogs.
I’m not saying its not true, I just thought the assertion I’d read in your above comment was backed by some documentation that I’d missed. I knew of the theory, but you said it with some certainty.
The tragedy isnt that the US is dealing with a corrupt fractured violent state prone to condone terrorism now and then. Compared to Guatemala, the Pakistanis are fucking Gandhis. And compared to some of the dealings with Israel, the Pakistanis are quite above board and working within the general strategical consensus.
What ius tragic is that the US has proved to be fucking incompetent from the freaking start to finish in this socalled Great game. Its like watching 6 year old monkies playing 3 dimensional chess in a dark room. Fair enough that the US had little understanding of tribal dynamics going in (after all it was never Rummys plan to stay in the fcking country) but once that decision of not pulling out was done, where the f were the “US school of Afghanistan” teaching civil servants how to run efficient gvmnt? Where was the coordinated rush of practical measures in the 3 year window following the invasion? No freaking where, is where. We just paid of some warlords who spoke english and settled back to defensive positions with hunter-seekers bagging an endless supplies of kills so McChrystal and Team America could freaking earn their patches. Contractor bonanza, in 2004, over 60 % of western aid went to paying western aid workers. Kabuki warfare for 4 freaking years, and no fcking politics.!!! It boggles the mind.
Thank you, rant off.
truths that are most definitely in poor taste.
If it ever became fashionable to tell these truths (or other similarly obnoxious ones like that corporations ARE the owners of our government), the results would be nothing short of chaos (possibly even rioting or revolution).
Pretty good rant, fnord, rather fine, in fact.
DW
I have commented on this. JourNoList is being used to destroy the careers of the young, hip, edgy journalists such as Dave Weigel and Spencer Ackerman. Well at least Spencer is edgy. I also call this The New Cointelpro. Secret Government attacks to disrupt, and destroy any dissent against the War Profiteers by anyone especially journalists.
Book recommendation:
The Duel, Pakistan on the Flight Path of American Power by Tariq Ali.
Jefferson spoke of aristocrats incapable of controlling passion while lusting for endless profit? That said aristocrats would usurp basic constitutional checks and balances to maintain self interest at the expense of law, the republic and ultimately the governed. Yes this qualifies as “treason.”
Executive Oil was quite successful in using the fear card to protect the interests of traders and oil interests which have gutted America via the protection of the corporate shell. ($147.00 per barrel oil) The trend continues under our present Administration which underscores the undue influence of corporations on the political process via corporate campaign contribution just as Madison and Jefferson feared/predicted? “Truth!”
Yep. That’s about it.
sorry if I missed answering some of your several questions last night, DW.
Well said.
Well, you’ve an opportunity, now.
Or not.
DW
Well said and quite agree. Couldn’t do a quickie to grab Osama bin Laden (the purported purpose of going to Afghanistan) bc ObL is the son of Bush’s good friends the bin Laden family.
As well, Colin Powell got the boot for having the nerve to suggest that the USA needed an “exit” strategy before rolling into Iraq. Dick Cheney didn’t like the idea of that, did he? Didn’t want an exit strategy bc he wanted to make money off of that other fiasco; who wants to leave quickly when staying endlessly = more money for the fat cats.
Frankly the US gov’t doesn’t give a shite about the cultures and socieities of these various nations (whether in the Middle East or Central or So America). Don’t know if the USA ever did give a frack, but these days it’s only about making lotsa money. Cha-ching!!! What ever collateral damage occurs is too **** bad.
Seconded!
DW
seek at the source point.
These fools think they can install more like the Shah or Pinochet in the Middle East (with Israel as superpower by proxy) and South Asia. The responsibility for the clusterfuck that is the Middle East can be placed squarely at the feet of the Allies during and after WWI, particularly Britain and France, Sykes-Picot and Balfour in the lead.
“Well said and quite agree. Couldn’t do a quickie to grab Osama bin Laden (the purported purpose of going to Afghanistan) bc ObL is the son of Bush’s good friends the bin Laden family.”
Thats conspiracy. never believe conspiracy where incompetence/lack of planning may be a possible cause is a good realist slogan. Having followed milblogs for a few years, back to Phil Carters Intel Dump, I can say that i am truly convinced of the US armed forces capacity to screw things up on their own.
What really bothers me is the lack of depth-of-strategy, its like some of the guys in command think five-year contigency planning is for communists. Or they just dont give a fuck and want to get rich ASAP.
Question. What counts as “our being successful in Afghanistan,” within the bounds of the remotely possible? Were they planning to resettle the whole country with current residents of Utah? Is there some plunder-related goal they can discuss? Couldn’t they just certify the Taliban for being “drug-free,” like Junior Bush did in 2001, and go home?
That bothers me too but not as much as the fact that we are operating under Cold War national security institutions 20 years after the end of the Cold War.
Gods yes. There we Euros have it better, our sec. forces are smaller and so more adaptable. The whole secret industry is just a weird US phenomena.Sometimes reminds me of a modern viking army, the kings elite leading bands of marauders, or outriders. The marines spearhead, the contractors loot.
Will do.
DW
Sucess noW? Getting our ass out of there in one piece, basically. ANd without looking like total assclowns.
May I recommend: http://easterncampaign.wordpress.com/ as a good starting point for an adult perspective on Afghanistan, btw?
I don’t see how the second condition can be attained if the first one is tried.
Rather, the bloated warfare state is a byproduct of a dying capitalist system. So someone in power has to “lose” at some point.
Cassi: Think hard about the number 2014. Long and hard. Thats going to be the new mantra. They need to build a puppet state, declare sucess, get most of the landforces out and leave a SF contigent behind as well as “advisors” in classic 70s fashion.
Of course, if the last White House meeting with Nethanyahu was as Israeli media tells it, a complete surrender, then we will be in a war with Iran long before then, and then all bets are off the table and draft may become a reality. In that case, we may see helicopters from the roofs of Kandahar, etc. Not that the various Kristols care about that.