It should be clear that someone who accepts those premises will find any intellectual force to shove inside of it: religion, politics, war. That’s why the most salient fact about al-Qaeda isn’t its self-proclaimed religious agenda. It’s that they buy into this Final Crisis conspiracy theorism. Religion is the gasoline, not the engine.
I include the Paul Kantner track here because it’s one of the purest musical expressions of a paranoid conspiracy theory that I know. The world is doomed by the corruption of Amerikkka and so the only hope is for the hippies to steal a spaceship and leave earth. (Some of us would consider that win-win.) Obviously there’s no comparison between the Jefferson Starship and al-Qaeda, and that’s why I post it here. Not all conspiracy theorists are violent and dangerous. To its credit, the DOJ briefing points to observable indicators of growing militancy (“each path involves exposure to violence”). However vague that is — it’s a framework, after all — it’s a reminder that you can only avoid false positives by looking at how people act on their beliefs, not the crazy-as-hell beliefs themselves.



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I have always thought that the lunatic tell of a conspiracy theory nutjob was the certainty. We all gather a certain amount of information, and from it we all draw a set of conclusions. But any rational observer will readily admit we’re operating from a limited information perspective, and the things we do not know, and the things we cannot know prevent us from knowing things for certain. So we continue to gather information to see if it supports our conclusions or if, in light of new data, we need to modify our conclusions.
Not so the extremist. He has gathered his information and reached a conclusion. The fact that he has access only to the same information that the rest of us have, but nonetheless pities our stupidity and blindness for not seeing, not UNDERSTANDING that which he knows with certainty doesn’t bother him in the least. He is blessed with divine knowledge, and he is untroubled by doubt or contrary information. Even the lack of evidence is presented as evidence supporting his favored conclusion.
But you hit on another good indicator here. It’s not enough for there to be a threat, it must represent a threat of a certain magnitude, the nation, our way of life, the entire world must stand in the balance. These enemies are not out for money or power, they are most unhinged of nihilists, desiring nothing less than the destruction of everything we love. The basis for this desire is never presented clearly, unless it is casually explained in racial or religious terms.
Interestingly, this approach has been adopted by governments who use a hyped-up external threat to garner approval for domestic and foreign policy initiatives that would otherwise result in political defeat or exile. And here, too, the threat need not be clearly defined, only repeated in the most strident of terms. Hence can it become immediately necessary for the world to invade and occupy Iraq, just as American leaders can, with a straight face, describe Iran as the greatest extant threat to world peace and stability…
mikey