My two cents – Obama wanted a straight path out of Afghanistan, the military wouldn’t give it to him, his former Clinton-administration officials wanted to be tough liberal hawks, so he was stuck. Instead of giving in to the Petraeus solution – surprisingly, the idea of unending war for a generation, which is really irresponsibly stupid – he tacks for the middle ground (which is becoming his specialty). Do a medium surge, pound chest and look tough, then get out in 2011.

It’s a plan. Not the one he wanted but the one he had to employ. I continue to be dumbfounded that there are senior military officers who don’t understand what Clausewitz meant when he said “war is an extension of politics.” Maybe Petraeus thought Clausewitz said “war can be extended by politics.” I just don’t know.

Can we still call Dave a “media savvy general” if he didn’t see Bob Woodward coming from a mile away?

we know that we don’t know some of the unknowable knowables they know. So, – what’s the setup Doc?

“Danger!” “Danger!” Will Robinson.

And the answer is……….. um………….um……………..

Despite knowing that there is a Pakistan – India component to this conflict which has caused Pakistan to support the Taliban which is killing US troops (recently confirmed by wikileaks), Pakistan wanting to counter Indian influence on its western border, Obama has “partnered” with Pakistan. Crazy.

General McChrystal’s Report, Aug 30, 2009 (extracts)

Pakistan. Afghanistan’s insurgency is clearly supported from Pakistan. Senior leaders of the major Afghan insurgent groups are based in Pakistan, are linked with al Qaeda and other violent extremist groups, and are reportedly aided by some elements of Pakistan’s ISI. . .

India. Indian political and economic influence is increasing in Afghanistan, including significant development efforts and financial investment. In addition, the current Afghan government is perceived by Islamabad to be pro-Indian. While Indian activities largely benefit the Afghan people, increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan is likely to exacerbate regional tensions and encourage Pakistani countermeasures in Afghanistan or India. — p.2-11

“A number of risks outside of ISAF’s control could undermine the mission, to include . . .and actions of external actors such as Pakistan and Iran.” –p.2-22
http://tinyurl.com/mto25d (pdf)
————-
from “Obama’s Wars”:
“”We need to make clear to people that the cancer is in
Pakistan,” Obama is quoted as saying at an Oval Office meeting
on Nov. 25, 2009. Creating a more secure Afghanistan is
imperative, the president said, “so the cancer doesn’t spread”
there.”
————-
President Obama’s speech, Dec 1, 2009 (extract)

“Third, we will act with the full recognition that our success in Afghanistan is inextricably linked to our partnership with Pakistan.”
http://tinyurl.com/2vuryu5

Obama gave this speech at the US Military Academy to cadets some of whom might be in Afghanistan in danger from the Pakistan-supported Taliban at this moment, or soon.

IIRC, Rumsfeld said the war would last a few months.

As I understood the exercise of doing a strategic reset, Obama asked the generals to outline an exit strategy, what they needed, and how long it would take. They gave him unserious responses, the sort of BS they generally shove up the chain. He called them on it, told them that he was not buying into the Long War as an exit strategy. So he put together his own strategy that involved diplomacy and coordination with the Pakistani army, development goodies, and a relatively good presidential election.

Then he asked the generals what they would need to carry out the strategy and a commitment to show progress by August 2011, with scheduled checkpoints along the way. At the first checkpoint, McChrystal tries to go over Obama’s head to the public to ask for more troops; no doubt some hawkish members of Congress encouraged him in this. At the second checkpoint Petraeus goes all William Westmoreland about how well the war is going and asks for more troops. Can we say that the military is slowwalking this to get the Long War that provides them job security and battle ribbons?

Karzai stole the election, the rampant corruption of the government undercut any stabilizing effect of the development goodies, and Pakistan got hit by a flood at the moment that would have been opportune to expand their offensive. And the Taliban has regrouped itself and made progress as a result of poor intelligence causing civilian casualties from drone attacks. Petraeus tries to buy local militias on the cheap; they take the money and do nothing. Pakistan pursues their own clear national interest with respect to the Afghani Taliban and the suppression of insurgency in the Northwest Territories and FATA.

And now, all of the folks who went kissing and telling to Bob Woodward have been exposed. And they want to make it a criticism of Obama’s strategy.

If they can’t change the situation for the better by August 2011, the generals need to put forward a plan for how they are going to extract ISAF troops from Afghanistan and call it quits. Unless they are intent on destroying the United States with a Long War.

I thought that any pretense that this war was about protecting people in the US from terrorist attack had gone by the board a long time ago. Is anybody trying to claim that the reason that we haven’t had another one in 9 years because we are committing terrorists attacks on other people? Protecting Americans from such incidents is a police problem not a military one. The police seem to be doing a reasonably adequate job.

70 billion a year is not chump change to the MIMC. That’s mother’s milk.

Yep. But you are forgetting the multi-billion-dollar signal intelligence food processor that is feed directly from international switches at central offices. That stopped the underwear bomber and the Times Square bomber, didn’t it.

What the U.S. public needs to see the error of their ways is an Afghanistan Dien Ben Phu. Does Al Quaeda read Giap?

Another blog no one pays attention to.

No, but maybe the Taliban saw “Charlie Wilson’s War.”

MANPADS — Man Portable Air Defense Systems.
Like the Stingers that were a big hit in “Charlie Wilson’s War”. Did you see it?
Pakistan builds ‘em and the Taliban uses ‘em.

The nomenclature is ‘Anza”, and the Paks have three models. The top two aren’t fooled by the flares that helicopters toss out to mislead the infrared heat-seekers on the killer missiles.

The US has lost several helicopters, including the Blackhawk helicopter brought down Tuesday. Reportedly nine Americans were killed and the Taliban claims credit. The pilot was Jonah McClellan, 26, of Clark County Washington. He leaves behind his wife, Nina, and their three small children.

One of the major revelations to come out of the 92,000 previously classified documents recently released by wikileaks is that apparently the Taliban have on several occasions fired at U.S aircraft using surface to air missiles better known as MANPADS. General McChrystal assessed a year ago that Pakistan is probably supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan.

The US highly depends upon aircraft for logistics, movement and command & control in Afghanistan. The roads are poor and dangerous.

It’s time to leave.

The Vietnamese were fighting more or less like a conventional army against the French. That made it possible to have a conclusive defeat. In Afghanistan we have a conventional army trying to fight dispersed guerrillas. That can go on until either we run out of money of they run out of children.

This could yet be America’s stupidest war ever.

We certainly have had the stupidest generals leading it, so far.

Could you give one example of an unstupid war please?

I agree with Sigger, except in the notion that Obama really just wanted to get out. he wanted to limit objectives, resources and commitment. But he wanted to accomplish something. The only alternative is that his campaign was complete BS, and as plausible as that sounds, I’m fairly convinced he really believed what he was saying about the need to properly resource the fight and achieve a solution that we could have some confidence in. I realize that sounds ridiculously optimistic at this point, but I believe he believed it, but that he wasn’t clear how much he was effectively committing to due to military preconceptions about how that had to be done. Why do I think it isn’t plausible that he believed the opposite of what he was saying thru the whole campaign? Because why build in such a colossal flop toward what would easily be portrayed as “surrender” into his first year in office in order to carry out his preferred policy? Why box yourself into something completely apart from what you want to do? Far more likely that prior to assembling his team, he just wasn’t clear how difficult the task and how expensive the options he’d have before him would be, and that once he did he clearly saw he needed to set limits, but at the same time knew he couldn’t effect a complete flop toward getting out. Certainly politically, but I get the impression he never got there substantively either. So he went with the “last best shot, with limits” option, along the COIN approach (since it was all the military seemed interested in carrying out). Like you say, it’s a plan. It’s contrary to the tenets of COIN, but it does move us toward buttoning up our expenditure. He’s on the hook for those he put in harm’s way for that strategy, but it’s not clear to me he didn’t think it was what was called for on the merits. On the other hand, it’s not clear to me that it was in fact called for on the merits, either.

Actually, I think the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan may have drawn off enough serious combatants, and psychopaths, to those conflicts to keep the really effective bad guys out of this country. What a world we’ve made: ruin lives in other countries to keep ourselves reasonably safe because some of the people whose countries and lives we’ve ruined want revenge. Talk about a circular firing squad.

Clearly, Obama has some dim perception that he was, and is, up shit creek without the paddle, but the time to confront the warpimps was soon after he came in, when he still had clout and could have used it to hold a little fireside chat and get the voters even more on his side by speaking the truth to them that “victory” was not possible, and staying in Afghanistan was just throwing good blood and treasure after bad, and to the end of getting out, he was going to pick the least objectionable warlord, give him enough low-tech toys to maintain himself for a while, tell him that if he so much as winked at the Taliban we would rain shit on his head, and then:

GET. THE. FUCK. OUT.

Now, he hasn’t got the clout to get us out…even if he had the courage to do it. Just like with his domestic agenda (what little there was of it…) the repubs, utterly unappreciative of the rehab job he’s bestowed on them, have his balls sitting in a mayo jar on Boehner’s desk.

Canning McChrystal was de riguer. If he hadn’t done it, the pentagon hawks would have been standing in line to fart in his face. It was the barest minimum he could have done to preserve the fiction that he’s on top of these Westmorelands. I haven’t seen anything from him to indicate that he’s remotely willing to have a definitive public confrontation with them, and if he thinks that he can extricate us (and his presidency) from this misery without doing that, then he’s as politically stupid as he’s been looking, all along.

“He’s on the hook for those he put in harm’s way for that strategy.”

He’s on the hook for a hell of a lot more than that. Surging in Afghanistan was one promise he SHOULD have broken. It’s his quagmire, now.

“Unless they are intent on destroying the United States with a long war.”

Oh, I think they’ll settle for politically ruining the democratic party, and especially, the progressive wing of it that is about the only place where remotely-articulate opposition to the two shitmires still exists.

BTW, in that “ruining” attempt, they have an accomplice. He’s sitting in the Oval Office.

Shorter Petraeus:

“By God, it’s OUR war. It’s not a bad war, and as long as we’re in it, we get to try out all kinds of new toys on the wogs, while the “defense” contractors rake in the bucks, and the GOP is poised to pimp me as Ike. What’s not to like?”