On a Tuesday conference call, Lt. Gen. William Caldwell, who’s in charge of the NATO training effort, was explicit about what the “end of 2014″ — hmm — does and doesn’t mean. “It doesn’t mean that there will still not be coalition forces here in support of them,” Caldwell said, “but the primary lead for security in this country must have been established with the Afghan security forces in the lead by the end of 2014.”
So 2014 is the new July 2011. If you listen carefully, you’ll hear the caveats and the asterisks that the Obama administration and NATO want to place onto the dates, and understand that neither date heralds the End Of The War. But there’s a word for politicians who need you to listen carefully to their statements to grasp the full depth of their meanings: liars. They’re putting out a line that suggests on its face that the war will wind down or end when they’re actually promising no such thing. Leaving the impression that there are endpoints for the war is an abuse of the public trust.
Personally, I can understand and sympathize with a staggered approach to deescalating the war. And I used to think that July 2011 was a policy date that reflected more subtlety than dishonesty. But to do essentially the same thing with 2014 paints the whole policy in a different and harsher light. And the reason for this, uh, excess of subtlety is to deliver different messages to different audiences: to the Afghans and Pakistanis and the insurgents and terrorists, it’s that we’re staying; and to the American public, it’s that we’re going. At the very minimum, that suggests the policy still isn’t well thought-out. The line between bet-hedging and incoherence is as fine as the one between subtlety and dishonesty.



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I think we call this vagueness “strategic ambiguity” and the usual next step is to figure out a way to blame someone unaccountable to the voters for not meeting the July 2011 deadline.
What’s even worse is that the entire statement is predicated on an assumption that, to be as kind as possible, seems extremely unlikely to come to pass. In three years the sectarian tribal problems will be managed to some extent, the illiteracy and corruption problems will somehow be dealt with, the desertions and drug use will be reduced to functional levels and overall Afghan security force performance and capability will approach that of a modern third world nation? I don’t see it.
How are we going to get there? Is there ANY reason to believe that a real, functional Afghan force can be stood up and put in the lead in ANY time window, let alone three-four years? What’s the motivating factor? What’s the unifying concept?
We know Afghan GDP won’t come NEAR supporting the force we keep envisioning, so there will have to be huge amounts of foreign funding which will continue to feed the corruption. There will still be warlords and militias and cronies that will continue to be divisive. There will still be Islamic fundamentalists and various sects, tribes and passions that will limit commitments to Afghani nationalism and resist foreign military forces.
If there’s no way to do what you say you’re going to do, you’re either stupid or lying. And no, I’m pretty sure they’re not stupid…
mikey
Spencer
“At the very minimum, that suggests the policy still isn’t well thought-out”.
Its not about the policy. That is very well thought out. Its about the politics which is not very well thought out at all.
President Obama never indicated that anything would change in 2011 concerning the war in Afghanistan.”
President Obama
December 01, 2009
the Way Forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan
“After 18 months, our troops will begin to come home. ”
That could be a platoon. Doesn’t mean diddly.
Where Obama has fallen short is in diplomacy. It’s clear there is no military solution, Petraeus and others have said so. But the US is no longer capable of diplomacy — with Iran, Israel, on Afghanistan — nowhere.
President Obama
March 27, 2009
a new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan
” . . .together with the United Nations, we will forge a new Contact Group for Afghanistan and Pakistan that brings together all who should have a stake in the security of the region — our NATO allies and other partners, but also the Central Asian states, the Gulf nations and Iran; Russia, India and China.”
No action.
President Obama
December 01, 2009
the Way Forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan
“We’ll have to use diplomacy, because no one nation can meet the challenges of an interconnected world acting alone. I’ve spent this year renewing our alliances and forging new partnerships. And we have forged a new beginning between America and the Muslim world — one that recognizes our mutual interest in breaking a cycle of conflict, and that promises a future in which those who kill innocents are isolated by those who stand up for peace and prosperity and human dignity.”
So call him on the lack of a comprehensive effort, not on “our troops will begin to come home” in 2011. Our troops are coming home all the time (some of them in boxes), and being replaced, after all.
And take all the dreamy talk about what might happen four years from now with a grain of salt. As Rummy continually said about Iraq — it’s “condition-based.” –Unlike WWII which took three years and was victory-based. (Not that I think victory is possible in Afghanistan. It isn’t.)
But think of the money being made! A lot of it by ex-military officers, beltway bandits, who use their Pentagon connections to obtain sweetheart war profiteering contracts.
Speaking of which, somebody needs to investigate how Rasmussen is being paid off to be a US puppet.