So what to expect at NATO’s Lisbon summit tomorrow? The one where the alliance firms up its intentions for an endgame in Afghanistan? Not much in the way of firmness, judging from a press conference given by Amb. Mark Sedwill, NATO special representative to Kabul:

Yet [Sedwill] conceded that even 2014 might not mark the end of foreign troops’ control in some areas. “There might still be one or two parts of the country where the transition process is ongoing, and that might last into 2015 or beyond,” Sedwill said. He added that 2014 is “not an end of mission. It’s not even a complete change of mission, but it is an inflection point where the balance of the mission would have shifted.”

Another “inflection point,” like July 2011 is supposed to be. But when can we say the war is “inflected”? Even beyond the question of post-2014 residual combat and trainer forces, remember that we’re not just in Afghanistan to fight the Afghanistan war. We’re there as a staging ground into Pakistan as well. So what will become of bases like Chapman, a(n alleged) launching pad for drone strikes into the tribal areas? Don’t expect to hear much about that in Lisbon.